Effect of common air pollutants on deaths from respiratory diseases in Urumqi
Objective To explore the impact and lag effect of several common air pollutants on respiratory disease deaths in Urumqi,Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region,so as to provide scientific evidence for the coordinated management of air pollution and climate change.Methods The daily air pollutant concentration data,meteorological data and respiratory disease death data of residents in Urumqi City from 2019 to 2021 were collected for descriptive statistical analysis.Using time series and generalized additive models,single-pollutant and multi-pollutant models were established to analyze the relationship between air pollutants and respiratory disease deaths in this city.Results The results of the single-pollutant model showed that SO2 concentration had the greatest impact at a 3-day lag(Lag3 d),with the number of deaths from respiratory diseases increased by 2.32％(95％CI:1.16％-3.48％)for every 10μg/m3 increase in SO2 concentration.In the two-pollutant model,the excess risk(ER)of PM2.5 on respiratory diseases was the largest when SO2 was used as the synergistic pollutant,with the number of deaths from respiratory diseases increased by 1.19％(95％CI:1.01％-1.30％)per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM25 concentration.After stratification by gender,females were more sensitive to SO2(winter:ER=4.10％,95％CI:0.65％-7.67％),PM2 5(autumn:ER=1.27％,95％CI:0.90％-1.65％),CO(autumn:ER=2.04％,95％CI:-0.65％-3.82％),while males were more sensitive to NO2(autumn:ER=1.22％,95％CI:0.95％-1.50％),PM10(winter:ER=1.04％,95％CI:0.96％-1.12％)and O38h(summer:ER=1.15％,95％CI:1.04％-1.27％).Across the age groups,＜60-year-old people were more sensitive to SO2(summer:ER=4.24％,95％CI:-2.76％-9.82％),NO2(winter:ER=1.27％,95％CI:-0.09％-2.66％),PM10(winter:ER=1.21％,95％CI:0.73％-1.70％),and O3 8h(winter:ER=1.34％,95％CI:0.59％-2.10％);≥60-year-old people were more sensitive to PM2 5(summer:ER=1.39％,95％CI:0.49％-2.29％)and CO(winter:ER=7.06％,95％CI:2.59％-12.35％).At high temperature,the effects of high concentration of SO2,low concentration of NO2 and low concentration of O3 8h on the number of deaths from respiratory diseases were enhanced[ER(95％CI):1.07％(1.01％-1.17％),1.02％(1.01％-1.11％),and 1.14％(1.05％-1.23％)].At low temperature,the concentration of each pollutant had no statistically significant impact on the number of deaths from respiratory diseases.Conclusions Increased concentration of air pollutants in Urumqi may cause the increase of respiratory disease death and the effect is lagged.The impact varies by seasons,genders,and age.
Air pollutantsRespiratory diseasesDeathsTime seriesGeneralized additive model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
