Analysis of influencing factors and projections of life expectancy in Yantai City from 2007 to 2020
Objective To analyze the influencing factors and trends of life expectancy and to forecast the life expectancy for residents in Yantai City,in order to provide reference for local government in decision-making.Methods The death registry data of residents in Yantai from 2007-2020 were extracted,and 9 potential influencing factors regarding society,economy and environment were collected.Joinpoint regression was applied to estimate the average annual percent change(AAPC)of life expectancy in 2007-2020,ridge regression to evaluate the impact of those influencing factors,and grey neural network modeling(GNNM)for forecasting life expectancy from 2021 to 2025.Results The life expectancy in Yantai showed an obvious upward trend year by year from 2007 to 2020(AAPC=0.50,95％CI:0.33-0.68).The number of health technicians per 10 000 persons had the largest positive effect on life expectancy,and the population-weighted PM2.5 had the largest negative effect on it,while infant mortality and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)had no statistically significant effect on life expectancy(P＞0.05).Life expectancy would increase by 0.034,0.135,0.163,0.292 and 0.140 years respectively for every 1 unit increase in the number of health technicians per 10 000 persons,gross domestic product(GDP)per capita,disposable income per capita,healthcare expenditure per capita and education expenditure per capita;life expectancy would decrease by 0.015 and 0.041 years respectively for every 1 unit increase in the population-weighted PM2.5 and SO2 emission.The forecast of GNNM(1,6)model showed that life expectancy of Yantai would increase slowly from 2021 to 2025,reaching 82.11 years by 2025.Conclusions Life expectancy of Yantai had been promoted obviously with social economic development and improvement in medical and health services over the period from 2007 to 2020.
Life expectancyPopulation-weightedNormalized difference vegetation indexGrey neural networkForecast
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