Trajectory of mortality due to falls,poisonings and burns and scalds among children aged 5-＜15 in China
Objective To analyze the trends and changes of mortality due to falls,poisonings and bums and scales among children aged 5-＜15 in China from 2005 to 2021.Methods The death data of falls,poisonings and bums and scalds among children aged 5-＜15 years from 2005 to 2021 were extracted from the China Cause of Death Reporting System,and analyzed using Joinpoint model to investigate the mortality trends,and to estimate the average annual percent change(AAPC).After stratification by region,rurality,gender,and age group,the data were processed using Proc Traj in SAS 9.4 statistical software to fit the mortality trajectory model of falls,poisonings,and bums and scalds in children aged 5-＜15 years.Results The results of Joinpoint model analysis showed an increasing trend of the mortality due to accidental fall among children aged 5-＜15 years in China from 2005 to 2021(AAPC=0.71％,P=0.235),decreasing trends of mortality due to accidental poisoning(AAPC=-2.96％,P=0.014)and mortality due to bums and scalds(AAPC=-2.50％,P=0.081).The accidental fall mortality in girls showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.11％)with statistically significant difference.The mortality due to accidental fall in children aged 10-＜15 years showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.94％)with statistically significant difference.The analysis results of trajectory model showed that the accidental fall trajectory was divided into three groups according to the fitting results,in which group 1 showed a downward trend(P＜0.01),mainly in boys aged 5-＜15 years in western region,group 2 showed an increasing trend with no statistically significant difference,and group 3 showed an increasing trend(P＜0.01),including children in eastern region(except boys of 5-＜10 years in cities),girls in central region and girls aged 10-＜15 years in western region.The accidental poisoning trajectory model was divided into two groups,in which group 1 increased first and then decreased(P＜0.01),including all children in eastern China,children in central urban China except girls aged 10-＜15 years,boys aged 5-＜10 years in western urban China and girls aged 5-＜10 years in central rural China;group 2 decreased linearly(P=0.013),including children in western China except boys aged 5-＜10 years in western cities,children in central rural China except girls aged 5-＜10 years,and girls aged 10-＜15 years in central urban China.In the trajectory model for bums and scalds,group 1 showed a gradually steeper upward trend(P=0.005),including 5-＜10 years old urban boys in western China and 10-＜15 years old urban girls in eastern,central and western regions,while the upward trend of group 2 was slower(P=0.587).Conclusions In the Joinpoit model of accidental falls,the mortality rate of girls and children aged 10-＜15 years shows an increasing trend,indicating the key population and age group for public health prevention and control.The mortality of group 3 in the accidental fall trajectory model and group 1 in the burns and scalds trajectory model showed an exponentially increasing trend,the causes of which should be explored and prevention and control measures be strengthened.
FallsPoisoningsBurns and ScaldsMortalityTrajectory model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
