The trend of respiratory tuberculosis mortality and the age-period-cohort analysis among rural and urban residents in China from 2002 to 2021
Objective To analyze the trends of respiratory tuberculosis mortality in China from 2002 to 2021 and explore the effects of age,period,and cohort on the risk of respiratory tuberculosis mortality.Methods Data on age-specific mortality rates of respiratory tuberculosis among Chinese residents aged 5 to 85 from the"China Health Statistics Yearbook"from 2003 to 2022 were collected.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changes in respiratory tuberculosis mortality rates among urban and rural residents in China from 2002 to 2021.The age-period-cohort model was employed to analyze the effects of age,period,and cohort on the risk of respiratory tuberculosis mortality among urban and rural residents in China.Results From 2002 to 2021,the standardized mortality rates of respiratory tuberculosis decreased among urban and rural residents,males,and females in China,with the average annual percentage changes of-8.42％(t=-6.29,P＜0.01),-8.39％(t=-6.11,P＜0.01),-7.69％(t=-6.19,P＜0.01),-6.69％(t=-5.19,P＜0.05),-7.69％(t=-5.01,P＜0.05),-7.72％(t=-3.49,P＜0.01)for urban residents,urban males,urban females,rural residents,rural males,and rural females.The results of the age-period-cohort analysis showed that the risk of death from tuberculosis increased with age,with a rapid increase in the age range and the highest peak of the risk of death in rural residents generally earlier than in urban areas,and the rapid increase in the age range and the highest peak of the risk of death in male residents generally earlier than in female residents(age effect).The period effect showed a decreasing trend in urban residents.The cohort effect showed that urban and rural residents had a lower risk of morbidity the later they were born.Conclusions From 2002 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of respiratory tuberculosis in Chinese residents showed an overall downward trend,and the effects of age,time,and birth cohort had a certain degree of impact on the mortality risk of residents of different genders and different regions(urban and rural).
Respiratory tuberculosisMortality rateChange trendJoin-point regression modelAge-period-cohort model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
