Incidence trend analysis of syphilis in China from 1990 to 2019:based on Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models
Objective To analyze the incidence of syphilis in China from 1990 to 2019 by age,period,and birth cohort.Methods The incidence data of syphilis in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the global burden of disease database.The Joinpoint regression(JPR)models were used to fit the trends of syphilis incidence,and the Age-Period-Cohort(APC)models were established to analyze the age,period,and cohort effects on syphilis incidence risk.Results From 1990 to 2019,the incidence of syphilis in China showed an upward trend,and the number of patients increased by 19.30％from 1990(1 183 200)to 2019(1 411 500).The JPR model results showed that the standardized morbidity trend for females and males increased significantly in 2017-2019 and 2014-2019,with annual change percentages of 9.56％and 2.10％,respectively(P＜0.01).The APC model results showed that the age effect of the relative risk(RR)of syphilis increased with age from 5 to＜30 years and decreased with age from 30 to＜65 years(RR=0-4.53),the period effect RR increased with the increase of years(RR=0.85-1.28),and the cohort effect RR decreased with earlier birth cohort(RR=0.53-1.60).Conclusions The incidence of syphilis in China has been increasing annually,with adolescents and young adults being the high-risk groups.The incidence risk has been increasing since 2004,and earlier birth cohorts have a higher risk of syphilis.Strengthening sex education for adolescents and screening for high-risk groups are needed to reduce syphilis transmission.
SyphilisIncidence trendAge-period-cohort modelJoinpoint regression model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
