Trend analysis and forecast of mortality in major respiratory diseases among Chinese residents from 2010 to 2021
Objective To understand the mortality trends of major respiratory diseases among Chinese residents from 2010 to 2021 and to forecast the crude mortality rates and the number of deaths of major respiratory diseases from 2022 to 2026,providing a reference basis preventing major respiratory diseases.Methods Data on mortality from major respiratory diseases,population,and demographic characteristics(gender,age group,region,and urban/rural areas)were collected from the Chinese Cause of Death Surveillance Dataset(2010-2021).The data were standardized using the 2010 census data.The mortality status of major respiratory diseases was described by crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate;the trend of standardized mortality rate was analyzed by using the Joinpoint regression analysis model,and the inter-group comparisons were performed by using the chi-square test and a grey model GM(1,1)was applied to predict the crude mortality rate and the number of deaths of major respiratory diseases in the period of 2022-2026.Results The crude mortality rate of major respiratory diseases among Chinese residents declined from 70.80/100 000 in 2010 to 52.58/100 000 in 2021,with an annual percent change(APC)of-2.40％.The difference in trend was statistically significant(t=-2.12,P=0.034).The standardized mortality rate decreased from 91.42/100 000 in 2020 to 31.76/100 000 in 2021,with a statistically significant difference(APC=-9.31％,t=10.17,P＜0.01).The standardized mortality rate was higher in males than females(x2=170 384.22,P＜0.05),higher in western regions than the central regions,and higher in central regions than eastern regions(x2=123 842.02,711 633.49,P＜0.05).The standardized mortality rate in rural areas was higher than in urban areas(x2=577 624.53,P＜0.05).The crude mortality rates for major respiratory diseases increased with age(APC=52.76％,P＜0.05),peaking at ≥80 years.The forecast results of the grey model GM(1,1)showed that the crude mortality rates of major respiratory diseases among Chinese residents in 2022,2023,2024,2025,and 2026 would be 53.23/100 000,51.65/100 000,50.13/100 000,48.65/100 000,and 47.21/100 000,with corresponding death numbers of 171 012,174 267,177 534,180 813,and 184 105 cases.Conclusions There are gender,age-specific,regional,and urban-rural differences in major respiratory diseases.Males,individuals aged ≥60 years old,residents in western regions,and rural areas are the high-risk groups that should be given special attention.
万方数据
