Mortality of bladder cancer in 2005-2020 and forecasting in China from 2021 to 2030
Objective To analyze the mortality of bladder cancer in 2005-2020 and predict the trends in China from 2021 to 2030,providing data support for the prevention of bladder cancer.Methods Data on bladder cancer-related deaths from 2005 to 2020 were extracted from the National Mortality Surveillance System.A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was used to forecast bladder cancer mortality for 2021-2030.The DAS GUPTA factor de-composition analysis was used to assess the impact of various factors on changes in mortality.Results In 2005,there were 18 741 deaths of bladder cancer patients in China,with an age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)of 1.72/100 000.By 2020,the number of deaths had risen slightly to 29 730,with an ASMR of 1.57/100 000.The ASMR for bladder cancer was projected to decrease to 2.43/100 000 for males and 0.34/100 000 for females by 2030.The decline in the mortality rate for bladder cancer was more significant in females(37.04％)than in males(14.74％).From 2021 to 2030,bladder cancer deaths are anticipated to increase by 27.15％for males and 9.26％for females.Conclusions The bladder cancer mortality in China has consistently increased,while the age-standardized mor-tality rate has decreased from 2005 to 2020.Despite the expected decrease in mortality rates from 2021 to 2030,the number of deaths is projected to rise,highlighting the need for increased healthcare investments and targeted preventive measures.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
