Age-period-cohort analysis and trend prediction of brucellosis incidence in China from 2005 to 2020
Objective To analyze the trends in the incidence of brucellosis in China from 2005 to 2020 based on age,period,and birth cohort and to provide a theoretical basis for brucellosis prevention and control.Methods The incidence data of brucellosis in residents from 2005 to 2020 were collected from the China Pub-lic Health Science Data Center.A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the segmented time trend,while the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was used to analyze the overall incidence trend across different age groups.The age-period-cohort(APC)model was used to investigate the effects of age,period,and cohort characteristics on the incidence of brucellosis.Results EAPC analysis showed that the growth rate of 0-＜5 years old and all ≥50 years old[11.83％(95％CI:7.67％-16.14％)]were higher than the average incidence rate[5.59％(95％CI:3.12％-8.12％)].Joinpoint regression model showed that the overall average annual growth rate was 4.88％(95％CI:2.65％-6.77％).Before 2014,the incidence rate increased rapidly,and after 2014,it slowly decreased.Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that age,period and cohort all had significant effects on the incidence of brucellosis.From 2005 to 2020,the incidence of brucellosis in China increased slowly at first and then rapidly with the increase of age,with the highest point ranging from 65 to＜70 years old,reaching 10.02/100 000(95％CI:8.68/100 000-11.56/100 000).The period effect showed that the risk of brucellosis gradually increased with the passage of years and maintained at a relatively high state.Taking 2010-2014 as a reference,the relative risk of brucellosis increased from 0.61 to 1.05,and the inci-dence increased from 1.96 per 100 000 to 3.37 per 100 000 during 2005-2020.The cohort effect showed that compared with the 1970 cohort,the 1925 cohort had the lowest relative risk of 0.08(95％CI:0.03-0.25)and the 2020 cohort had the highest relative risk of 3.93(95％CI:2.13-7.25).The forecast of Brucellosis based on Nordpred shows that the incidence of brucellosis is increasing in the near future and is expected to reach 3.94 per 100 000 by 2025.Conclusions The incidence of brucellosis in China is affected by age,period,co-hort,and other factors.The incidence of brucellosis in China has been increasing in recent years.Targeted pre-vention and control measures should be taken to reduce the burden of brucellosis in China.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
