基于灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的全国异地就医发展趋势预测研究
Predicting the future trends of national out-of-area medical services utilization with the gray GM(1,1)model
牛俊 1李杰 2刘中华 2王海燕 2闵峻蕾2
作者信息
- 1. 110003 沈阳,辽宁省医疗保障事务服务中心;中国科学院大学经济与管理学院
- 2. 110003 沈阳,辽宁省医疗保障事务服务中心
- 折叠
摘要
目的 分析GM(1,1)模型在我国异地就医领域中应用的可行性,并预测我国异地就医未来发展变化趋势,以期为医疗保障的政策制定与规划决策提供借鉴和参考.方法 基于灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,对2023年—2030年我国异地就医人次和医疗费用变化趋势进行定量预测分析.结果 异地就医人次2023年—2030年预测结果分别是11 605.476万、12 306.701万、13 029.631万、13 774.936万、14 543.310万、15 335.467万、16 152.142万、16 994.094万人次,其模型平均相对误差为6.103%;而异地就医医疗费用2023年—2030年预测结果分别是5 402.736亿、5 769.652亿、6 149.246亿、6 541.956亿、6 948.235亿、7 368.554亿、7 803.395亿、8 253.262亿元,其模型平均相对误差为4.385%.结论 运用GM(1,1)模型对我国异地就医未来发展变化趋势进行预测分析是可行的,且预测精度等级优秀,预测值与实际值走势一致,模型拟合度较高,符合历史发展趋势,具有较为科学的预测效果.同时,从异地就医的风险管理、基金监管和疾病预防3个方面提出相应的对策建议,以促进异地就医健康良性发展.
Abstract
Objective To assess the applicability of the gray GM(1,1)model for predicting the utilization of out-of-area medical services in China and employ the model to predict future development trends,so as to provide evidence for the development of relevant policies and plans.Methods Based on the gray system theory GM(1,1)model,a quantitative predictive analysis of the trends in out-of-area health care visits and medical expenses in China for the period of 2023-2030 was performed.Results The predicted numbers of out-of-area health care visits for each year from 2023 to 2030 were as follows:116.05476 million in 2023,123.06701 million in 2024,130.29631 million in 2025,137.74936 million in 2026,145.43310 million in 2027,153.35467 million in 2028,161.52142 million in 2029,and 169.94094 million in 2030,with the model's mean relative error being 6.103%.Meanwhile,the predicted out-of-area medical expenses from 2023 to 2030 were 540.2736,576.9652,614.9246,654.1956,694.8235,736.8554,780.3395,and 825.3262 billion yuan,respectively,with the mean relative error being 4.385%.Conclusion The GM(1,1)model is a feasible tool for predicting the future trends of out-of-area medical services utilization in China.The model exhibits high predictive accuracy,with the predicted values closely aligning with the actual data,indicating a strong fit and a scientifically robust predictive capability.Countermeasures on proper and feasible risk management,fund supervision,and disease prevention were proposed to promote rational development of out-of-area medical services utilization.
关键词
灰色系统理论/GM(1,1)模型/异地就医人次/异地就医费用/预测分析/发展趋势Key words
Gray system theory/GM(1,1)model/Out-of-area health care visits/Out-of-area medical expenses/Predictive analysis/Development trend引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据