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Import Policy Uncertainty and Innovation

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The Chinese government has emphasized innovation as the primary driving force for economic development in the new era.This paper studies the effect of import policy uncertainty(IPU)on the innovation activity of Chinese manufacturing firms.It establishes a simple model to show that the presence of IPU encourages innovation and that a reduction in IPU discourages innovation.It distinguishes the almost unnoticed IPU reduction from tariff reduction on China's WTO accession and develops a novel difference-in-differences specification that identifies the negative effect of IPU reduction on innovation using updated data for Chinese manufacturing and patent filings.The result holds after a battery of identification assumptions and robustness checks are considered.The import channel explains about two thirds of the effect of IPU on innovation,but not all of the effect.Finally,this paper examines the effect across firms of different levels of productivity and ownership types and patents of different categories.

import policy uncertaintyinnovationpatentWTO

Lingshan Chen、Yunong Li、Qian Xie、Mao Zhou

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School of International Business,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics(SWUFE),China

School of International Business,SWUFE,China

Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,China

National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaSWUFE Jiaozi Institute of Fintech Innovation

721731327217310072003193cgzh20210202

2024

中国与世界经济(英文版)
中国社会科学院 世界经济与政治研究所

中国与世界经济(英文版)

ISSN：1671-2234
年,卷(期)：2024.32(1)
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