首页|Will the State-owned Capital Transfer Policy Enhance the Sustainability of the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Fund in China?

Will the State-owned Capital Transfer Policy Enhance the Sustainability of the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Fund in China?

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To analyze the effect of the state-owned capital transfer policy on the sustainability of China's urban employee basic pension insurance fund(CUEBPIF),this study develops an actuarial model for pension insurance.The results reveal the following:(ⅰ)Without policy intervention,the CUEBPIF would face a deficit in 2027 and a cumulative shortfall ofRMB207.44 trillion by 2050,and the proportion offiscal subsidies for the CUEBPIF in the total fiscal expenditure would increase to 12.86 percent in 2050.(ⅱ)Based on a delayed retirement policy,the transfer of 10 percent of state-owned capital can delay the onset of the fund deficit by 6 years,and the accumulated shortfall in 2050 would fall to RMB39.42 trillion,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies would decrease by 11.77 percentage points.(ⅲ)The state-owned capital transfer policy can improve the sustainability of the CUEBPIF and reduce the burden of enterprise social security contributions when the transfer ratio increases to 20 percent.

burden of enterprise social security contributionsdelayed retirement policystate-owned capital transfer policysustainability of basic pension insurance fund

Jia Wang、Huan Liu、Mei Li、Han Li

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School of Economics,Xiamen University,China

School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,China

School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,China

国家自然科学基金

21CZZ028

2024

中国与世界经济(英文版)
中国社会科学院 世界经济与政治研究所

中国与世界经济(英文版)

ISSN:1671-2234
年,卷(期):2024.32(3)
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