基于ARIMA和TOPSIS模型预测与评价我国妇幼保健机构综合效益
Forecasting and evaluating the comprehensive benefits of China's maternal and child health-care institutions based on ARIMA and TOPSIS model
张彬 1张龙秀 2唐智国1
作者信息
- 1. 合肥市妇幼保健院/安徽医科大学妇幼医学中心科教处,安徽合肥 230001
- 2. 安徽省儿童医院影像中心,安徽合肥 230039
- 折叠
摘要
目的 探索我国妇幼保健机构综合效益水平的变化趋势及关键影响因素.方法 从《中国统计年鉴》和《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》选取妇幼保健机构2008-2022年基础配置、服务数量和服务效率3个维度指标数据,采用差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)和优劣解距离法模型(TOPSIS)对2008-2027年度我国妇幼保健机构综合效益进行预测与评价,并应用逐步回归分析探索关键影响因素.结果 2008-2022年度和预测的2023-2027年度相对接近度C值逐年升高,人员数、卫生技术人员、病床周转次数3个指标解释相对接近度C值的99.9％变化原因.结论 人员数、卫生技术人员和病床周转次数是妇幼保健机构综合效益水平影响的关键因素,"十四五"期间妇幼保健机构必须加强人才培养和服务效率建设.
Abstract
Objective To explore the changing trends and the key factors affecting the level of comprehensive effec-tiveness in maternal and child healthcare institutions in China.Methods This study extracted data from three key dimen-sions-specifically basic configuration,service quantity,and service efficiency-of maternal and child healthcare institutions,covering the period from 2008 to 2022 as reported in the China Statistical Yearbook and the China Health and Wellness Statis-tical Yearbook.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)models were applied to predict and evaluate the comprehensive benefits of these institutions over the period from 2008 to 2027.And to identify the central influencing factors based on stepwise regression method.Results The value of the relative proximity index C from 2008 to 2022 and the anticipated period from 2023 to 2027 was rising year by year.This increase was attributed to three indicators:the number of personnel,the number of health technicians,and the turn-over of beds,which collectively account for 99.9 percent of the variation in the value of the relative proximity index C.Con-clusion The number of personnel,health technicians,and the turnover rate of beds are identified as key factors impacting the level of comprehensive efficiency in maternal and child health care institutions.These factors need to be enhanced during the 14th Five-Year Plan period with a focus on improving personnel training and service efficiency.
关键词
优劣解距离法模型/妇幼保健/综合效益/差分自回归移动平均模型/预测分析Key words
TOPSIS model/maternal and child health care/combined benefits/ARIMA model/predictive analysis引用本文复制引用
基金项目
安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKY20-23D031)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据