Age-period-cohort analysis of the burden of maternal abortion disease in China from 1990 to 2019
Objective To understand the trend of the incidence and the disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rate of maternal miscarriage in China,and to evaluate the impact of different ages,periods and birth cohorts on the risk of miscarriage.Methods The incidence and DALY data of maternal miscarriage in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained through the Global Burden of Disease(GBD2019)Database,and the change trend of standardized incidence and standardized DALY rate of mis-carriage was analyzed by Join point software,and the age-period-cohort effect of miscarriage incidence were estimated based on the age-period-cohort model and endogenous factor method.Results From 1990 to 2019,the new cases,incidence,DALY and DALY rate of in China showed a downward trend,the standardized incidence rate decreased from 1578.52/100000 in 1990 to 822.82/100000 in 2019,with a change rate of-47.97％,and the standardized incidence rate decreased by 2.07％per year on average,and the standardized DALY rate decreased from 9.99/100000 in 1990 to 0.88/100000 in 2019,with a change rate of-91.19％.The standardized DALY rate decreased by an average of 7.85％per year.The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that with the increase of age,the risk coefficient of miscarriage first increased and then decreased,reaching a peak at the age of 20-24.The period effect showed a downward trend and then an upward trend.The risk coefficient of the birth cohort increased significantly from 1940 to 1974,decreased with the passage of the birth cohort from 1975 to 1999,and then in-creased again from 2000 to 2004.Conclusion The risk of incidence of miscarriage in China is affected by age,period and cohort effects.Continuously improving the birth policy,strengthening the level of services and improving the level of educa-tion are the main measures to further reduce the burden of maternal diseases.
miscarriageincidencedisability-adjusted life yearage-period-cohort model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
