Prevalence and disease burden of male and female infertility in China based on age-period-cohort model and prediction study
Objective The prevalence and disease burden of male and female infertility in China from 1990 to 2021 were evaluated,and the effects of different ages,periods and birth cohorts on the incidence of infertility were evaluated.The prevalence and disease burden of male and female infertility from 2022 to 2036 were predicted to provide reference for the prevention of infertility.Methods The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021)database was used to describe the burden of disease through indicators such as prevalence and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs).Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of standardized prevalence of infertility and standardized disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)in men and women.Age,period and cohort effects of infertility prevalence and disease burden in men and women based on age-period-cohort model.The grey prediction model GM(1,1)was used to fit the trend of infertility prevalence and disease burden of men and women,and predict the infertility prevalence and disease burden of men and women from 2022 to 2036.Results From 1990 to 2021,the standardized prevalence of male and female infertility in China showed an increasing trend year by year(AAPC=0.12,0.13,P＜0.001),and the DALY rate of male and female infertility also showed an increasing trend year by year(AAPC=0.18,0.12,P＜0.001).The results of age-period-cohort effect showed that the prevalence and DALY rate of male infertility in China peaked in the 40-45 age group and the 25-30 age group,respectively.The prevalence of female infertility and DALY rate reached the peak in 25-30 years old group and 40-45 years old group,respectively.The period re-sults showed that the risk of male and female infertility reached the highest in 1995-1999.The results of birth cohort effect showed that the risk and DALY rate of male and female infertility reached the lowest in 1995-1999.The prediction results showed that the standardized prevalence and standardized DALY rate of infertility in men and women decreased slightly from 2022 to 2036,but the standardized prevalence and standardized DALY rate of infertility in women were much higher than those in men.Conclusion The prevalence of infertility and DALY in Chinese men and women are affected by age,period and cohort effect.We expect to provide scientific data support for public health professionals and policy makers to develop effec-tive strategies and improve the reproductive health level of the population,while providing psychological support and appro-priate medical services for infertile patients.
infertilityprevalencedisease burdentrend analysisage-period-cohort model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
