Objective:To determine the dominant environmental factors shaping the distribution of Prunus mume.To predict the distribution areas of P.mume under current and future climatic environ-ments.Methods:A total of 172 distribution points and corresponding 32 environmental factors of P.mume were collected,and the MaxEnt model was constructed accordingly.The dominant environmen-tal factors affecting the growth were identified,and the current and future distribution map of P.mume was drawn by ArcGIS.Results:There were five main environmental as dominant factors affecting the distribution of P.mume:min temperature of coldest month(bio6),annual precipitation(bio12),pre-cipitation of warmest quarter(bio18),annual temperature difference(bio7)and precipitation of driest Month(bio14),among which bio6 had the greatest effect on the survival probability.When the lowest temperature in the coldest month was 10.1℃,P.mume reached the highest living probability of 71.47%;Under the current climatic environment,the areas of high,medium and low suitable areas ac-counted for 7.78%,17.01%and 7.73%,respectively,in China.And the high suitable areas were main-ly distributed in Guangdong,Guangxi,Sichuan,Guizhou,Yunnan,Chongqing,Zhejiang and Taiwan provinces.Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5,the suitable area of P.mume(potential high and medium suitable area)moved north and increased wavelike of 101.85%and 102.28%,respectively.Conclu-sion:The present result could provide basic data not only for the sustainable utilization of P.mume re-sources,but also for its rational distribution of artificial planting.
维普
万方数据
