Objective:To understand the potential distribution and population dynamics of Nitraria un-der climate change scenarios,and to provide theoretical basis for the conservation and restoration of Ni-traria in China. Methods:144 distribution sites and 9 environmental factors were used to simulate the suitable areas and migration routes of Nitraria in different periods (last glacial maximum,last intergla-cial,present and future) in China using the MaxEnt model,and the climatic factors affecting distribu-tion of Nitraria were analyzed. Results:The distribution of Nitraria was significantly affected by pre-cipitation in the warmest season (bio18),average annual temperature (bio1),standard deviation of seasonal temperature change (bio4) and average temperature in the coldest season (bio11),and their suitable ranges were as follows:50～250 mm,11～22.5℃,600～1400 and-12.5～-2.5℃. Under the contemporary climate scenario,the suitable area of Nitraria was distributed in all regions of north-west China,with a small distribution in Shaanxi and Shanxi. The total suitable area of contemporary was 277.17 × 104 km2. The high,middle and low suitable area was 68.92 × 104 km2,90.03 × 104 km2 and 118.22 × 104 km2,respectively. Compared with the contemporary period,the high,middle and low suitable areas of the last glacial maximum,the last interglacial and the future all decreased. In addi-tion,from the last glacial maximum to the last interglacial period,the suitable area of Nitraria expand-ed. Centroid analysis showed that the genus had a tendency to migrate to lower elevations in the future. Conclusion:Under the background of global warming in the future,the survival risk of Nitraria would be faced,and the protection and utilization of Nitraria should be strengthened.
维普
万方数据
