Objective To investigate the correlation between early recurrence and late recurrence within 48 hours after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on atrial fibrillation patients who underwent catheter ablation at the Heart Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from April 2020 to November 2021.Preoperative examinations and baseline data of patients were collected.After surgery,the patient was given continuous electrocardiogram monitoring for 48 hours to observe whether there was early recurrence of atrial fibrillation.Follow up visits were conducted at 3,6,9,and 12 months after surgery to observe whether there were atrial fibrillation events.The impact of extremely early recurrence on late recurrence free atrial fibrillation was analyzed using Kaplan Meier curves,and the predictive value of extremely early recurrence and other indicators for late atrial fibrillation recurrence was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.Results A total of 96 patients who underwent catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation for the first time were included in this study,with an age of(60.2±12.6)years.Among them,46 patients(47.92％)experienced very early recurrence within 48 hours after surgery.During the 1-year follow-up,16 patients in the very early recurrence group experienced late recurrence,which was statistically significant compared to the very early non recurrence group(P=0.003).The proportion of persistent atrial fibrillation was higher in patients with very early recurrence(32.6％vs 8.0％,P=0.006),and more patients with late recurrence(34.8％vs 8.0％,P=0.003).The left atrial diameter was larger[(40.28±4.72)mm vs(37.10±4.35)mm,P=0.001].The Kaplan Meier curve showed that compared with the very early non recurrence group,the late recurrence rate of patients in the very early recurrence group was significantly higher(Long rank P=0.001 6).Cox single factor regression analysis showed that very early recurrence,age increase,increased left atrial diameter,hypertension and diabetes were risk factors for late recurrence(all P＜0.2).Multivariate regression analysis suggested that extremely early recurrence was an independent risk factor for late recurrence(HR=3.99,95％CI:1.22-13.06,P=0.021).The area under the ROC curve for predicting late recurrence after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation with extremely early recurrence was 0.703,and the negative predictive value was 0.920.Conclusions Early recurrence within 48 hours after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation is an independent risk factor for late recurrence and has good predictive value.
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