Factors affecting the frequency of bronchoscopic lavage treatment in patients with severe pneumonia and the construction of risk prediction models
[Objective]To analyze the influencing factors of bronchoscopic lavage treatment frequency in severe pneumonia patients and construct a risk prediction model.[Methods]The clinical data of 110 patients with severe pneumonia who received bronchoscopic lavage in Xinyang Infectious Diseases Hospital from January 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively collected.According to the frequency of bronchoscopic lavage,the patients were divided into a single group of 77 cases and a multiple group of 33 cases(no less than twice).Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the factors that affect the frequency of bronchoscopic lavage treatment in severe pneumonia patients,and a risk prediction model was constructed based on the regression analysis results.R software was used to construct a column chart and a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to evaluate the predictive effectiveness of the risk model.[Results]The multiple group was older than the single group,with a longer heat course than the single group.The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE-Ⅱ)score and C-reactive protein(CRP)levels at admission of the multiple group were higher than those of the single group,and the proportion of patients with bronchial obstruction in the multiple group was higher than in the single group,with statistical significant differences(P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that age,heat duration,APACHE-Ⅱ score,CRP level,and bronchial obstruction were independent risk factors affecting the frequency of bronchoscopic lavage treatment in severe pneumonia patients((O)R＞1,P＜0.05).A nomogram was drawn to construct a risk prediction model for the frequency of bronchoscopy lavage in patients with severe pneumonia.The discrimination of the model showed that the consistency index(C-index)value=0.903,with good discrimination.The standard curve showed that the calibration curve was close to the Y-X straight line,and the accuracy of the model was good.[Conclusion]Age,heat duration,APACHE-Ⅱ score,CRP level,and bronchial obstruction are the influencing factors of bronchoscopy lavage treatment frequency in severe pneumonia patients.The risk prediction model constructed based on these factors has high predictive value for the need for multiple lavage treatments in bronchoscopy for severe pneumonia patients.
severe pneumoniabronchoscopic lavageinfluencing factorsbronchial obstructionrisk prediction model
万方数据
维普
