基于灰色模型的湖北省护理人力资源预测研究
Forecasting study of nursing human resources in Hubei province based on greg model
谭雨滴 1黎晶融2
作者信息
- 1. 华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院神经内科,武汉 430000
- 2. 华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院小儿外科,武汉 430000
- 折叠
摘要
目的 基于湖北省2013-2022年的护理人力资源数据,运用灰色模型预测随后5年湖北省护理人力资源的发展趋势.方法 利用灰色模型预测公式,基于2013-2022年护理人力资源数据进行分析.结果 湖北省2013-2022年护理人力资源整体呈增长趋势,2020年后城乡之间每千人口注册护士数差距逐渐缩小.构建的灰色模型拟合效果优异,预测显示,2023-2027年湖北省的护士总人数及每千人口注册护士数将继续增加.结论 湖北省护理人力资源稳步增长,城乡每千人口注册护士数差距逐渐缩小,但仍呈现总体配置不足.灰色模型在护理人力资源预测中表现出高精度,为科学、合理地配置和规划区域护理人力资源提供了重要依据.
Abstract
Objective To predict the development trend of nursing human resources in Hubei province in the next five years using the grey model.Methods The number of registered nurses and nurses per 1 000 population in Hubei province between 2013 and 2022 were analyzed using the grey model prediction formula.Results From 2013 to 2022,the overall nursing human resources in Hubei province showed an increasing trend,and the gap between urban and rural registered nurses per 1 000 population gradually narrowed after 2020.The grey model had been constructed with excellent fitting results,and the prediction showed that the total number of nurses and the number of registered nurses per 1 000 population in Hubei province will continue to increase from 2023 to 2027.Conclusion Nursing human resources in Hubei province have grown steadily,and the gap between urban and rural registered nurses per 1 000 population has gradually narrowed,but the overall allocation is still insufficient.The grey model demonstrates high accuracy in nursing human resources prediction and provides an important basis for scientific and rational allocation and planning of regional nursing human resources.
关键词
灰色模型/护理人力资源/预测Key words
Grey model/Nursing human resources/Prediction引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据