Trade policy adjustment and trend forecast of Sino U.S.aquatic products trade under the trade war
Since the trade friction between China and the United States,the U.S.has implemented lots of aquaculture promotion measures,including Seafood Trade Relief Program,which provides direct aid subsidies to export aquatic products,in order to mitigate the impact of the increase in tariff on fisheries and fishermen's income.This paper sets up three different trade policy schemes,and analyzes the characteristics and trends of trade changes in aquatic products under trade friction using the GTAP model.The conclusions show that the increase in tariff has seriously negative impact on Chinese and American social welfare,the American social welfare decline more than China.China's aquatic products exports will still maintain trade surplus,and the increase in tariffs will have little impact on the production of aquatic products in China and the United States.The United States will increase the export of aquatic products to other major export markets,and the effect of trade transfer is obvious,while China's export of aquatic products to other major export markets will reduce.If the United States highly subsidizes the export of aquatic products,it will greatly enhance the export competitiveness of aquatic products,and the American aquatic products will substitute Chinese aquatic products in the international market.
imposition of tariffsexport subsidyaquatic productsGTAP model
万方数据
维普
