首页|基于状态空间法的环渤海地区海洋生态承载力评价与时空演化分析

基于状态空间法的环渤海地区海洋生态承载力评价与时空演化分析

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近年来,海洋经济的蓬勃发展、海洋的开发与利用规模不断扩大,同时也造成严峻的海洋生态问题,制约着我国海洋经济的可持续发展.为更好地经略海洋,实现海洋经济的可持续发展,需要对海洋生态承载力进行科学评判,在可控范围内对海洋进行科学的开发与利用.为此,本文从社会经济、科学技术、资源禀赋以及环境生态四个层面构建海洋生态承载力评价指标体系,结合状态空间法,对环渤海地区三省一市2010-2020年的海洋生态承载力的时空差异与特征进行探讨,并提出改善环渤海地区海洋生态承载力的对策建议.研究结果表明:环渤海地区海洋生态承载力整体水平较低,且地域间存在明显差异,山东省与辽宁省处于基本可载状态,天津市与河北省处于不可载状态.从时序层面,2010-2020年三省一市海洋生态承载力保持整体平稳略有上升的态势.
Evaluation and spatiotemporal evolution analysis of marine ecological carrying capacity in the Bohai Rim region based on state space method
With the vigorous development of the marine economy in recent years,the scale of ocean development and utilization has gradually expanded,which has brought about more severe marine ecological problems,restricting the sustainable development of China's marine economy.In order to better manage the ocean and achieve sustainable development of the marine economy,it is necessary to scientifically evaluate the ecological carrying capacity of the ocean,and carry out scientific ocean development and utilization within a controllable range.Therefore,this study constructs an evaluation index system for marine ecological carrying capacity from four levels:socio-economic,scientific and technological,resource endowment,and environmental ecology.Combined with the state space method,it explores the spatiotemporal differences and characteristics of marine ecological carrying capacity among three provinces and one city in the Bohai Rim region from 2010 to 2020,and proposes countermeasures and suggestions to improve the marine ecological carrying capacity in the Bohai Rim region.The research results indicate that the overall level of marine ecological carrying capacity in the Bohai Rim region is relatively low,and there are significant differences between regions.Shandong Province and Liaoning Province are in a basically loadable state,while Tianjin City and Hebei Province are in a non loadable state.From a temporal perspective,the overall marine ecological carrying capacity of the three provinces and one city remained stable and slightly increased from 2010 to 2020.

marine ecologyecological carrying capacitythe Bohai Rim regionstate space methodspatiotemporal evolution

武晓雯、曹洪军

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中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛 266100

山东省计量科学研究院,山东济南 250014

海洋生态 生态承载力 环渤海地区 时空演化

山东省自然科学基金山东省科技发展计划

ZR2021MD0732014GGH222001

2024

中国渔业经济
中国水产科学研究院,中国农业发展集有限公司,中国海洋大学,上海海洋大学,中国水产学会

中国渔业经济

影响因子:0.616
ISSN:1009-590X
年,卷(期):2024.42(2)
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