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中国大陆对台湾地区出口的影响因素分析——基于CMS模型

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本文选取联合国贸易 2002-2022 年中国大陆对台湾地区水产品出口贸易数据,运用 CMS模型对中国大陆水产品出口到台湾地区的影响因素进行两个层次的分析.结果表明:1.2002-2022 年期间,中国大陆对台湾地区水产品的出口呈现"缓增-激增-跌落"三个阶段,对台主要出口甲壳软体制品、鲜冷甲壳及软体类、生鲜冷冻鱼和鱼制品四类水产品.2.在 2002-2022 年期间的三个阶段中,竞争力效应和第二层次分解的综合竞争力效应是影响中国大陆对台湾地区水产品出口的主导因素.3.在 2018-2022 年阶段台湾地区水产品进口规模扩大,但是中国大陆水产品在台湾地区市场上的市场份额却降低.再此基础上,提出促进两岸水产品贸易相应的对策建议.
Analysis of the influencing factors of Chinese mainland's export of aquatic products to Taiwan:based on CMS model
Based on the United Nations trade database 2002-2022,this paper uses the CMS Model to analyze the influencing factors of Chinese mainland's export of aquatic products to Taiwan at two levels.The results are as followings.Firstly,during 2002-2022,the mainland's export of aquatic products to Taiwan presents three stages of"slow increase-sharp increase-decline",and the main export of aquatic products to Taiwan is four types of aquatic products,they are shell,soft tissue products,fresh and frozen shell and soft tissue products,fresh and frozen fish and fish products.Secondly,during the three stages from 2002 to 2022,the competitiveness effect and the comprehensive competitiveness effect of the second level decomposition are the leading factors affecting the mainland's export of aquatic products to Taiwan.Lastly,during 2018-2022,the competitiveness of mainland aquatic products in the Taiwan market declines,and the market share decreases.Finally,the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to promote the trade of aquatic products across the Taiwan Strait.

aquatic productsexportConstant Market Share Model(CMS Model)Taiwan Province

尹则淅、乐家华、闫周府

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上海海洋大学 经济管理学院,上海 201306

水产品 出口 CMS模型 台湾

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金

21YJC790139

2024

中国渔业经济
中国水产科学研究院,中国农业发展集有限公司,中国海洋大学,上海海洋大学,中国水产学会

中国渔业经济

影响因子:0.616
ISSN:1009-590X
年,卷(期):2024.42(3)
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