Potential risks and strategies of China's food security in the context of multiple country grain export restrictions:based on the all-encompassing approach to food perspective
Potential risks and strategies of China's food security in the context of multiple country grain export restrictions:based on the all-encompassing approach to food perspective
In recent years,global public health events and geopolitical conflicts have occurred frequently.Faced with the impact of major emergencies,many countries restrict export to ensure their own food security,which will have a negative impact on China's food imports.This paper analyzes the changes of China's food imports before and after the export restrictions of many countries,and analyzes the main factors affecting the safety level of China's food categories,cereals,livestock meat and aquatic products by using the time series ARIMAX Model.The main factors set include the degree of international food trade turbulence and the risk of food damage in China.The analysis shows that the current level of food security in China is mainly affected by the supply of protein food,and the export restrictions of grain in many countries have little impact on the supply of grain and aquatic products in China,and the impact on the long-term supply of livestock and meat needs to be vigilant.Finally,based on the analysis and empirical results of the changes in China's food imports before and after the export restrictions in many countries,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to ensure China's food security in the future from the perspective of the all-encompassing approach to food.
关键词
粮食限制出口/重大突发事件/食物安全/大食物观/ARIMAX模型
Key words
grain export restrictions/major emergencies/food security/all-encompassing approach to food/ARIMAX Model
万方数据