Study on the impact of emergencies on the price fluctuation of aquatic products:a case study of Penaeus vannamei origin purchase price in Guangdong Province
In recent years,the occurrence of unexpected events such as COVID-19,extreme climate,Russia-Ukraine conflict,and trade friction have a serious impact on the international agricultural market.As a result,it is of great significance to study the impact of emergencies on aquatic product prices.In this paper,the monthly origin purchase price data of Penaeus vannamei in Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2022 are selected as the research object,and the components of shrimp price and price volatility are analyzed by using HP filtering model and X-12 seasonal model.Subsequently,the study focuses on the extent to which random shocks during the occurrence of emergencies and the concern of residents affect the price of Penaeus vannamei.The results of the study show that there are obvious cyclical and seasonal characteristics of Penaeus vannamei prices.During the occurrence of emergencies,the price shows a negative impact trend,while the increase in residents'attention has a positive impact on shrimp price.This paper suggests that the government should strengthen the price monitoring efforts,timely release of relevant information to improve the anti-risk ability of farmers.
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