Objective To establish a time series model suitable for predicting the number of cases of brucellosis in Chi-na,and provide a scientific basis for preventing and controlling this disease.Methods This study utilized data on the number of cases from January 2015 to December 2021 to establish SARIMA and prophet models,respectively.Subsequently,the predictive performance of these two models was validated by using data from January 2022 to April 2023,and the results of the model pre-dictions were compared by using three indicators:RMSE,MAPE,and MAE.Finally,the prophet model with higher accuracy was used to predict the number of cases from May 2023 to April 2024.Results The overall number of cases of brucellosis in Chi-na is rising,reaching its peak from June to July each year,showing a clear seasonal trend.Compared to the SARIMA model,the RMSE,MAPE,and MAE values of the prophet model are lower,indicating that the prophet model has higher accuracy in predic-ting brucellosis.The predicted peak of the number of cases in 2023 is lower than the actual peak in 2021 and 2022.Conclusion The prophet model can better fit the monthly reported number of cases of brucellosis in the country and can be used for short-term prediction.
维普
万方数据