Objective To construct a nomogram model for predicting the risk of acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure.Methods Two hundred and ninety-four elderly patients with chronic renal failure admitted to our hos-pital from January 2019 to December 2019 were selected as the study subjects.According to the occurrence of acute left heart failure,they were divided into the left heart failure group(n=61)and the control group(n=233).The clinical data of the pa-tients were collected.The risk factors of acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure were analyzed by uni-variate and multivariate logistic regression,and a nomogram model was established.Results Age≥70 years old,diabetes,poor blood pressure control,blood phosphorus concentration≥1.61 mmol/L,hemoglobin＜60g/L and pulmonary infection were inde-pendent risk factors of acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure(P＜0.05).The model validation re-sults showed that the C-index was 0.745,the calibration curve was close to the ideal curve,and the AUC of the ROC curve was 0.751(95％CI:0.711-0.791).Within the range of 10％-84％,the nomogram had a net benefit.Conclusion Age≥70 years old,diabetes,poor blood pressure control,blood phosphorus concentration ≥ 1.61 mmol/L,hemoglobin＜60g/L and pulmonary infection will increase the risk of acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure.The nomogram model estab-lished in this study has a good predictive effect on acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure.
关键词
老年慢性肾衰竭/急性左心衰/危险因素/列线图
Key words
elderly chronic renal failure/acute left heart failure/risk factor/nomgram
维普
万方数据