基于灰色系统的医院收支平衡水平回归预测模型构建
Construction of hospital breakeven level regression prediction model based on grey system
陆云飞1
作者信息
- 1. 宁波大学附属第一医院病案统计室,315000浙江宁波
- 折叠
摘要
目的 在宁波市疾病诊断相关分类(DRGs)点数法付费下,探究影响医院收支平衡水平的影响因素并构建回归预测模型.方法 收集2021年1-12月宁波某医院收支平衡水平和20个相关因素指标,通过相似性聚类分析法筛选出典型指标,使用灰色关联分析计算典型指标的权重,进而构建灰色系统的多元回归预测模型.结果 影响收支平衡的关键指标包括低倍率病例占比、总权重2个正向指标和正常病例占比、费用消耗指数、DRG结算病例占比3个负向指标,各指标的关联度和权重大小依次为:低倍率病例占比、总权重、DRG结算病例占比、正常病例占比、费用消耗指数.应用上述5个指标构建出灰色系统多元回归预测模型,预测模型符合有效性和精准性检验标准,能够精准拟合和预测医院收支平衡水平.结论 多因素灰色系统回归预测模型有利于医院管理部门精准地制定战略目标和决策,提升医院收支平衡水平,保障医院长期平稳发展.
Abstract
Objective To investigate the influencing factors affecting the level of hospital revenue and expenditure bal-ance,and construct a regression prediction model under the payment of diagnosis related groups(DRGs)point method in Ningbo City.Methods The income and expenditure balance level of a Hospital of Ningbo city from January to December 2021 and 20 related factors indicators were collected,typical indicators were selected by similarity cluster analysis,and the weights of the typi-cal indicators were calculated by using gray correlation analysis,so as to construct a gray system multivariate regression prediction model.Results The key indicators influencing the balance of revenue and expenditure included two positive indicators which were the proportion of low-magnification cases and total weight,and 3 negative indicators which were the proportion of normal ca-ses,cost consumption index,and proportion of DRG settlement cases.The correlation and weight of each indicator were in the following descending order:proportion of low-magnification cases,total weight,proportion of DRG settlement cases,proportion of normal cases,and cost consumption index.By applying these five indicators,we constructed a grey system multivariate regression prediction model,which was proven to meet the criteria for effectiveness and accuracy testing.This model could accurately fit and predict the level of income and expenditure balance in hospitals.Conclusion The multi-factor gray system regression prediction model is beneficial for hospital management to accurately formulate strategic goals and decisions,improve the level of hospital revenue and expenditure balance,and ensure the long-term stable development of hospitals.
关键词
疾病诊断相关分类/收支平衡/灰色关联度聚类/多元回归分析Key words
diagnosis related groups(DRGs)/revenue and expenditure balance/gray correlation degree clustering/multiple regression analysis引用本文复制引用
基金项目
宁波市软科学研究计划项目(2022R032)
浙江省康恩贝医院管理软科学研究项目(2021ZHA-KEB323)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据