Objective To analyze the risk factors of multiple myeloma(MM)complicated with herpes zoster(HZ),and to construct a nomogram early warning model.Methods The patients with MM who were admitted to the Department of He-matology in a hospital from April 2020 to March 2022 were selected as research objects,and they were divided into the HZ group and the non-HZ group according to whether HZ occurred.The clinical data of selected MM patients were analyzed,and logistic regression analysis was used to screen out the risk factors for MM patients complicated with HZ.A nomogram was constructed based on independent risk factors and a goodness-of-fit test was performed.Results A total of 229 MM patients were included in this study,and the incidence rate of HZ confirmed by testing was 24.02％(55/229);age ≥ 65 years old(OR=3.242,95％CI:1.456-7.218),taking bortezomib(OR=3.902,95％CI:1.725-8.830),using cyclophosphamide(OR=2.862,95％CI:1.349-6.073,P=0.006),myeloma status(OR=3.004,95％CI:1.394-6.475),neutropenia(OR=2.496,95％CI:1.147-5.433),white globulin ratio＜0.5(OR=4.440,95％CI:1.933-10.196),lymphopenia(OR=3.145,95％CI:1.481-6.679)were independent risk factors for MM patients with HZ(P＜0.05);the nomogram model showed that age ≥65 years was 79 points,bortezomib was 92 points,cyclophosphamide was 71 points,myeloma status was 73 points,granulocytopenia was 62 points,globulin ratio＜0.5 was 99 points,and lymphocytopenia was 76 points.The verification results showed that the C-index was 0.846,the calibration curve was close to the ideal curve,the area under the ROC curve was 0.815,the threshold probability was 5％-84％,and the net benefit value was higher.Conclusion The nomogram prediction model constructed in this paper has high accuracy,which can make a favorable contribution to the clinical assessment of the risk of HZ in MM patients,and also meets the clinical needs for the integrated model.
维普
万方数据
