Objective To explore the application of time-series decomposition method in predicting the number of outpa-tient cases of schizophrenia and to provide a basis for rational allocation of medical resources.Methods Schizophrenia cases with a first outpatient visit to a hospital from January 2013 to December 2022 were included in our study,seasonal analysis was per-formed by using the seasonal decomposition module in SPSS 26.0 software,and a seasonal trend model was developed to evaluate the predictive performance of the model by using the outpatient data of the hospital from January to June 2023.Results The number of outpatient cases of schizophrenia in this study showed a decreasing trend year by year,with slight seasonal fluctuations characterized by a few months,but none of them exceeded the 20％limit,and there was no obvious seasonal phenomenon.The model verification showed that the predicted value was basically consistent with the actual number of outpatient cases in the same period.Conclusion In recent years,the number of outpatient cases of schizophrenia has shown a significant long-term decrea-sing trend,and the disease has no obvious seasonal phenomenon.The time series decomposition method can be used to predict the number of outpatients with schizophrenia.
关键词
精神分裂症/趋势分析/时间序列分解法/预测
Key words
schizophrenia/trend analysis/time series decomposition method/prediction
维普
万方数据