Construction of readmitted risk prediction model for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus
OBJECTIVE To explore the risk factors for readmission within 1 year in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)to construct a risk prediction model for readmission within 1 year and assess its differentiation and validity.METHODS From June 2019 to June 2022,a retrospective case-control study was performed.The relevant case data were collected from dis-charged T2DM patients after treatment.And 117 patients readmitted within 1 year were selected as readmission group while 360 patients not readmitted during the same time period were randomized into non-readmitted group in a ratio of approximately 1∶3 with gender as a matching factor.The risk factors for readmission within 1 year post-discharge were screened by univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses.And a risk prediction model was constructed for assessing the differentiation and validity of model by the curves of ROC,calibration and decision.RESULTS High fasting glucose,history of coronary artery disease,type of emergency admission,long duration of illness,change in body mass,occurrence of hypoglycaemia and complications were independent risk factors for readmission within 1 year in T2DM patients.Regular monitoring of blood glucose was a protective fac-tor for readmission within 1 year.The area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.747.The maximal value of Jordon's index was 0.374 with a sensitivity of 82.1％,a specificity of 55.3％and a cut-off value of 0.187.CONCLUSION The prediction model of readmission risk for T2DM patients within 1 year yields excellent outcomes.It may effectively identify the high risk group of readmission and provide references for clinical early prevention and intervention of readmission of T2DM patients.
type 2 diabetes mellitushospital readmissioninfluencing factorsrisk prediction model
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