摘要
[目的]分析启东市1972-2021年胰腺癌发病流行特征及变化趋势.[方法]根据启东市1972-2021年胰腺癌发病登记数据和历年人口资料,计算粗发病率、中国人口标化发病率(中标率)、世界人口标化发病率(世标率)、35～64岁截缩率、0～74岁累积率和累积风险,应用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0统计软件分析胰腺癌发病率的年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC);利用年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列对胰腺癌发病趋势变化的影响.[结果]1972-2021年启东市胰腺癌发病5 674例,占全部癌症发病的3.85％,粗发病率为10.12/10万,中标率为3.66/10万,世标率为6.09/10万,35～64岁截缩发病率为8.05/10万,0～74岁累积发病率为0.73％,累积风险为0.73％.男性发病3 122例,粗发病率、中标率、世标率分别为11.29/10万、4.47/10万、7.41/10万;女性发病2 552例,粗发病率、中标率、世标率分别为 8.97/10 万、2.93/10 万、4.93/10 万.0～44 岁、45～54 岁、55～64 岁、65～74 岁、75 岁及以上组人群的发病率分别为0.63/10万、6.41/10万、19.06/10万、43.46/10万、68.24/10万,AAPC分别为 1.30％(95％CI:-0.60％～3.23％)、1.12％(95％CI:0.10％～2.14％)、0.36％(95％CI:-0.70％～1.43％)、0.86％(95％CI:-0.16％～1.88％)、2.96％(95％CI:1.54％～4.41％).其中,45～54 岁、75 岁及以上组的上升趋势有统计学意义(P均＜0.05).1972-2021年间胰腺癌粗发病率、中标率、世标率的 AAPC 分别为 4.40％(95％CI:3.98％～4.81％)、0.95％(95％CI:0.57％～1.33％)、1.21％(95％CI:0.82％～1.59％),趋势均有统计学意义(P均＜0.001).年龄-时期-队列模型分析显示,胰腺癌的发病风险随年龄的增长而升高,越晚出生的人发病风险越大(P均＜0.05).[结论]启东市胰腺癌的发病率呈上升趋势,卫生行政部门应制定相应的防控措施,以降低胰腺癌负担.
Abstract
[Purpose]To analyze the trends of pancreatic cancer incidence in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021.[Methods]The cancer registry data of pancreatic cancer in-cidence from 1972 to 2021 in Qidong were collected and analyzed.Crude rate(CR),age-standardi-zed rate by Chinese standard population and world standard population(ASRC and ASRW),an-nual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated.Age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age,period and birth cohort on the incidence trend of pancreatic cancer.[Results]From 1972 to 2021,there were 5 674 cases of pancreatic cancer reported in Qidong,accounting for 3.85％of all new cancer cases,with a CR of 10.12/105,ASRC of 3.66/105 and ASRW of 6.09/105.The truncated incidence of 35～64 years old was 8.05/105,the cumulative incidence rate of 0～74 years old was 0.73％,and the cumulative risk was 0.73％.There were 3 122 male cases and 2 552 female cases;the CR,ASRC,ASRW of males and females were 11.29/105,4.47/105,7.41/105 and 8.97/105,2.93/105,4.93/105,re-spectively.The CR of the age groups of 0～44,45～54,55～64,65～74,≥75 years old were 0.63/105,6.41/105,19.06/105,43.46/105,68.24/105,respectively;and the corresponding AAPCs were 1.30％(95％CI:-0.60％～3.23％,P＞0.05),1.12％(95％CI:0.10％～2.14％,P＜0.05),0.36％(95％CI:-0.70％～1.43％,P＞0.05),0.86％(95％CI:-0.16％～1.88％,P＞0.05),2.96％(95％CI:1.54％～4.41％,P＜0.05).From 1972 to 2021,the AAPCs of CR,ASRC and ASRW of pancreatic cancer were 4.40％(95％CI:3.98％～4.81％,P＜0.05),0.95％(95％CI:0.57％～1.33％,P＜0.05),1.21％(95％CI:0.82％～1.59％,P＜0.05).The age-period-cohort model showed that the risk of pancreatic cancer increased with age,and the risk of pancreatic cancer was positively correlated with the birth cohort(P＜0.05).[Conclusion]The incidence of pancreatic cancer has presented a rising trend in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province over the last fifty years.The health authorities should formulate prevention and control measures to reduce the burden of pancreatic cancer.
基金项目
南通市科教强卫工程项目(十四五)(通卫科技[2021]15号)
南通市卫生健康委科研项目(MS2023121)
南通市卫生健康委科研项目(MSZ2023109)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据