Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Jiashan County of Zhejiang Province from 1991 to 2020 and Prediction of Change Trend from 2021 to 2035
[Purpose]To analyze the trends of cancer incidence and mortality from 1991 to 2020 in Jiashan County of Zhejiang Province,and to predict trends from 2021 to 2035.[Methods]Cancer cases and deaths from 1991 to 2020 in Jiashan County were collected.The crude inci-dence rate and mortality rate,age-standardized rate(ASR)were calculated.The annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated by Joinpoint model to analyze the trend of cancer incidence and mortality.The age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trends of cancer incidence and mortality from 2021 to 2035 and the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was calculated.[Results]The age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population(ASIRC)in Jiashan were 159.06/105,187.25/105,and 254.37/105 during 1991-2000,2001-2010,and 2011-2020,respectively.The trends in young and middle-aged women and people above 65 years old were more predominant.Lung,stomach,colorectal,liver and female breast cancers were major incident cancers for the period from 1991 to 2020.The cancer incidence showed an increasing trend from 1991 to 2020(AAPC=2.17％,P＜0.05)and is expect-ed to continue to increase over 2021 to 2035(EAPC=3.03％,P＜0.05).The age-standardized mor-tality rates by Chinese standard population(ASMRC)in Jiashan were 119.74/105,117.79/105,and 100.11/105 during 1991-2000,2001-2010,and 2011-2020,respectively.Lung,liver,stomach,colorectal,esophageal,and pancreatic cancers were leading causes of cancer deaths from 1991 to 2020.The cancer mortality showed a decreasing trend from 1991 to 2020(AAPC=-1.00％,P＜0.05)and is expected to continue to decline over 2021 to 2035(EAPC=-1.67％,P＜0.05).[Conclusion]The mortality rate from cancers has been gradually declined in Jiashan County,while the incidence rate has increased significantly and will continue to increase in the next 15 years.High incidence of lung cancer,liver cancer,gastric cancer and colorectal cancer makes it crucial to pay close attention to key groups and strengthen the control of risk factors of high inci-dence cancer.
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