Land Finance and Local Government Hidden Debt:Based on the Shock of the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic
Since the reform and opening up,with the rapid rise of housing prices,local governments'dependence on land finance has been increasing.After the reform of the tax system,the local government has a high degree of mis-match between financial and administrative rights,and the financial pressure of not being able to make ends meet has prompted the emergence of local government financing platforms,and the disorderly expansion of municipal investment bonds has triggered the risk of hidden debt of local governments.This paper selects the municipal investment bonds issued in 2015-2022 as the research object,explores the impact of each city's land transfer revenue on the credit spread of mu-nicipal investment bonds,and distinguishes between different types of land transfer revenues,different levels of marketi-sation,different local financial strengths,and different economic regions for heterogeneity analysis.In addition,this pa-per constructs the new crown pneumonia epidemic shock variable and introduces the generalised double difference model to study the moderating effect of the new crown pneumonia epidemic as an exogenous shock on the relationship between land transfer revenues and municipal investment bond credit spreads,and finally,this paper replaces the explanatory variables,the explanatory variables and the new crown epidemic shock variable to carry out the robustness test,and fur-ther analyses the risk mitigating effect of different types of guaranteed credit enhancement institutions.The empirical find-ings show that the increase of land grant revenue can effectively reduce the credit spreads of municipal bonds,and the exogenous shock of the Xin Guan Pneumonia epidemic will increase the credit spreads of municipal bonds,and weaken the negative correlation between the land grant revenue and the credit spreads of municipal bonds,and in many ways have a large heterogeneity.Further analysis shows that different types of guaranteed credit enhancers can have different risk mitigation effects,with lower issuance premiums for externally professionally guaranteed municipal bonds compared to unguaranteed municipal bonds,and higher issuance premiums for internally affiliated guaranteed municipal bonds.
Land FinanceLocal Government Hidden DebtsCoronavirus PandemicCredit Spreads
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