Study on influence mechanism of urban rainstorm waterlogging risk based on Bayesian network and coupling degree model
In order to study the correlation between the disaster-causing factors of urban waterlogging accidents and systemati-cally present the influence of multiple factors on the whole catastrophic process,the Bayesian network and coupling degree model were used to characterize the key parameters of the evolution of rainstorm disaster chain,and the influence of single factor or multiple factors coupling on rainstorm waterlogging was analyzed.The results show that in the single factor analysis,the environmental factors are the main cause of urban waterlogging(80%),followed by urban hardware system(78%).In the double factors analysis,the probability of urban waterlogging is the highest under the coupling of urban hardware system and environment(82%).Further more,in the three factors analysis,the coupling of urban hardware system,environment and management is the most likely to cause urban waterlogging(83%).Subsequently,taking the"23·7"heavy rainstorm disas-ter in Beijing as an example,it is concluded that the model evaluation results are in good agreement with the actual situation.Finally,the corresponding preventive measures are proposed.The research results have guiding significance for the prevention and control of urban waterlogging disasters in the future.
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