首页|Multi-Agent模式下的城市暴雨内涝应急决策方法研究

Multi-Agent模式下的城市暴雨内涝应急决策方法研究

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为厘清应对暴雨内涝灾害动态决策过程中决策主体、决策、决策方案等决策要素间的不确定关系,提出1种多主体(Multi-Agent)和贝叶斯决策网络(BDN)相结合的应急决策方法.首先分阶段构建"主体-任务"可视化网络,分析暴雨内涝灾害各应急阶段的主要任务和参与的决策主体;在考虑到决策要素间的动态不确定性可能造成决策风险的前提下,运用Multi-Agent和BDN方法探究各决策要素间的影响关系,以便进行方案集优选.研究结果表明:该方法具有实用性和现实意义,研究结果可为城市暴雨内涝灾害的应急决策提供理论参考.
Research on emergency decision-making method of urban rainstorm waterlogging under Multi-Agent mode
In order to clarify the uncertain relationship among decision-making elements such as decision-making subject,de-cision-making and decision-making scheme in the dynamic decision-making process of coping with rainstorm waterlogging dis-aster,an emergency decision-making method combining Multi-Agent and Bayesian decision network(BDN)was proposed.Firstly,a"subject-task"visualization network was constructed in stages,and the main tasks and decision-making subjects in-volved in each emergency stage of rainstorm waterlogging disaster were analyzed.Under the premise that the dynamic uncer-tainty among decision-making elements may cause decision-making risk,the Multi-Agent and BDN methods were used to ex-plore the influence relationship of each decision-making element,so as to carry out the scheme set optimization.The results show that the method has practicality and practical significance.The research results can provide theoretical reference for emergency decision-making of urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters.

urban rainstorm waterloggingBayesian decision networkmulti-subject emergency decision-makinguncertain relationship"subject-task"interactive network

王莉、杨若昕、曹景稳、景紫嫣、李佳欢

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西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安 710054

中国石油长庆油田公司,陕西 西安 710000

城市暴雨内涝 贝叶斯决策网络 多主体应急决策 不确定关系 "主体-任务"互动网络

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金青年科学基金

5207421451504185

2024

中国安全生产科学技术
中国安全生产科学研究院

中国安全生产科学技术

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.119
ISSN:1673-193X
年,卷(期):2024.20(4)
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