中国安全生产科学技术2024,Vol.20Issue(4) :199-206.DOI:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.04.028

Multi-Agent模式下的城市暴雨内涝应急决策方法研究

Research on emergency decision-making method of urban rainstorm waterlogging under Multi-Agent mode

王莉 杨若昕 曹景稳 景紫嫣 李佳欢
中国安全生产科学技术2024,Vol.20Issue(4) :199-206.DOI:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.04.028

Multi-Agent模式下的城市暴雨内涝应急决策方法研究

Research on emergency decision-making method of urban rainstorm waterlogging under Multi-Agent mode

王莉 1杨若昕 1曹景稳 2景紫嫣 1李佳欢1
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作者信息

  • 1. 西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安 710054
  • 2. 中国石油长庆油田公司,陕西 西安 710000
  • 折叠

摘要

为厘清应对暴雨内涝灾害动态决策过程中决策主体、决策、决策方案等决策要素间的不确定关系,提出1种多主体(Multi-Agent)和贝叶斯决策网络(BDN)相结合的应急决策方法.首先分阶段构建"主体-任务"可视化网络,分析暴雨内涝灾害各应急阶段的主要任务和参与的决策主体;在考虑到决策要素间的动态不确定性可能造成决策风险的前提下,运用Multi-Agent和BDN方法探究各决策要素间的影响关系,以便进行方案集优选.研究结果表明:该方法具有实用性和现实意义,研究结果可为城市暴雨内涝灾害的应急决策提供理论参考.

Abstract

In order to clarify the uncertain relationship among decision-making elements such as decision-making subject,de-cision-making and decision-making scheme in the dynamic decision-making process of coping with rainstorm waterlogging dis-aster,an emergency decision-making method combining Multi-Agent and Bayesian decision network(BDN)was proposed.Firstly,a"subject-task"visualization network was constructed in stages,and the main tasks and decision-making subjects in-volved in each emergency stage of rainstorm waterlogging disaster were analyzed.Under the premise that the dynamic uncer-tainty among decision-making elements may cause decision-making risk,the Multi-Agent and BDN methods were used to ex-plore the influence relationship of each decision-making element,so as to carry out the scheme set optimization.The results show that the method has practicality and practical significance.The research results can provide theoretical reference for emergency decision-making of urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters.

关键词

城市暴雨内涝/贝叶斯决策网络/多主体应急决策/不确定关系/"主体-任务"互动网络

Key words

urban rainstorm waterlogging/Bayesian decision network/multi-subject emergency decision-making/uncertain relationship/"subject-task"interactive network

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基金项目

国家自然科学基金(52074214)

国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(51504185)

出版年

2024
中国安全生产科学技术
中国安全生产科学研究院

中国安全生产科学技术

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.119
ISSN:1673-193X
参考文献量17
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