Analysis on dynamic evolution of domino effect caused by tank leakage in non-catastrophe Natech events triggered by earthquake
In order to investigate the influence of non-catastrophe Natech events induced by ground fissures under seismic ac-tion on the domino effect of storage tank leakage and fire,a GERT-DBN evolutionary analysis model based on the assump-tions of Natech scenario was proposed.The model combined the spatial and temporal evolution of non-catastrophe Natech events with probabilistic prediction,and specified the major combination of failure tanks that comprise the domino accident scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence based on the quantified scenario information.Under the failure scenario as-sumption of different degrees of ground crack damage to storage tank,the variation law of the probability of domino effect esca-lation with the evolution of accident scenario was obtained.The dynamic prediction of the probability of tank domino accident escalation was achieved,and the prediction was conducted by real case.The results show that under the accident scenario of storage tank group in the hydrogenation station of the case,the increase of earthquake and its secondary ground fissure damage coupled with the accumulation of thermal radiation will accelerate the domino accident escalation.The probability of domino accident escalation decreases gradually along with the accident evolution before the failure of hydrogen storage tanks,and the utility of the safety protection system is affected by the ground fissure damage.The research results can provide reference for risk assessment and control in the non-catastrophic Natech events of earthquakes.
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维普
