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多灾情景下城市区域Natech风险应对分析

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为更好地应对自然灾害诱发的技术灾难(Natech事件)产生的复杂多灾情景风险,提出城市区域Natech风险应对需求满足性评估方法,基于对城市区域单元的划分,评估单元的风险应对需求等级和单元内的风险应对资源满足性,并完成对我国某市某区域风险应对需求满足性的分析,提出对策建议.然后,基于国内外城市暴雨—洪涝案例,运用情景理论构建城市区域暴雨—洪涝的情景模型,定量分析风险应对要素在Natech事件多灾情景中的应急响应作用.研究结果表明:只有当各种类型的风险应对需求均满足时,才能更好地提升应急响应水平.研究结果可为多灾情景下的城市区域Natech风险应对提供科学参考和建议.
Analysis of Natech risk response in urban areas under multi-disaster scenarios
In order to better respond to the complex multi-disaster scenarios caused by natural disasters induced technological disasters(Natech events),a method for evaluating the satisfaction of Natech risk response needs in urban areas was firstly proposed.Based on the division of urban area units,the level of risk response needs and the satisfaction of risk response re-sources within units were evaluated.The satisfaction of risk response needs in a certain area of a city in China was analyzed,and the countermeasures and suggestions were proposed.In addition,based on the urban rainstorm and waterlogging cases at home and abroad,the scenario model of rainstorm and waterlogging in urban areas was constructed using the scenario theory,and the role of risk response factors in emergency response to the multi-disaster scenario of Natech events was quantitatively analyzed.The results show that only when all types of risk response needs are met,the emergency response level can be better improved.The research results can provide scientific reference and suggestions for the risk response of Natech in urban areas under multi-disaster scenarios.

Natechrisk responseurban areainterpretative structural modelingrainstorm and waterlogging

汪嘉俊、兰猛、沈锴欣、耿婧、翁文国

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清华大学 安全科学学院,北京 100084

清华大学 公共安全研究院,北京 100084

城市综合应急科学北京市重点实验室,北京 100084

Natech 风险应对 城市区域 解释结构模型 暴雨洪涝

国家自然科学基金重点项目国家自然科学基金重点项目国家重点研发计划项目

72034004723041642023YFC3807602

2024

中国安全生产科学技术
中国安全生产科学研究院

中国安全生产科学技术

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.119
ISSN:1673-193X
年,卷(期):2024.20(7)