Research on construction and application of risk assessment model for 10kV live working
In order to accurately assess the risk factors of live connecting branch line lead wire for 10 kV overhead line in live working,a comprehensive risk assessment model based on the grey relational analysis and Bayesian network model was estab-lished.Firstly,593 cases of live working accidents were analyzed,and the relation coefficients of four risk factors,including human,material,environment and management,were calculated by the grey relational analysis.Secondly,the live working was divided into the electricity checking stage,confirming branch line stage,setting insulation shielding stage,removing and leav-ing stage,and making branch line lap stage.According to the expert scoring results,the Netica software was used to calculate the posterior probabilities of risk factors,and a Bayesian network safety assessment model was constructed.Finally,the com-prehensive weight calculation was conducted on the results,and a risk assessment model of 10 kV live working was estab-lished.The results show that the calculation result of Bayesian posterior probability is more inclined to the human factor and the equipment and facility factor,while the weight of environment factor is increased after combining the grey scale calcula-tion.The assessment results are more consistent with the previous historical data,which proves that the comprehensive assess-ment method of grey scale calculation combined with Bayesian model can more truly reflect the practical power operation situ-ation.The research results can provide theoretical and methodological support for the risk assessment of electric power opera-tions.
live workinggrey relational analysisBayesian networkrisk assessment
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