Scenario analysis of oil storage tank farm accidents based on Bayesian network
In order to determine the importance of various key nodes of the domino effect triggered by tank farm accidents,an evolution network under the scenario construction of oil storage tank farm accidents was proposed by introducing into the Bayesian network method based on the elements of disaster-inducing environment,disposal measures and evolution results at different development stages of scenario construction.Through the sensitivity and impact intensity analysis,the key nodes in the accident development process were screened out,and the accident branch chain was refined to demonstrate the reasonable-ness of the construction of accident evolution network.The results show that in the process of accident,the fire extinguishing,fire isolation,personnel evacuation,residual of hazardous chemicals,full evacuation,and organization of search and rescue nodes have a greater impact on the domino phenomenon,and each accident branch conforms to the evolution trend of scenario construction.The research results can provide support and reference for the construction of accident emergency assistant deci-sion-making technology.
NETL
NSTL
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