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危险驾驶行为在分心与事故间的中介效应分析

Analysis on mediating effect of dangerous driving behavior between distraction and accident

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为了探讨分心驾驶对事故伤亡后果影响的因果关系机制,选取事故报告采样系统(crash report sampling system,CRSS)中2020 年交通事故数据作为样本,采用因果中介效应分析方法和蒙特卡罗近似算法进行估计,并进行敏感性分析以验证因果中介效应的基本假设.研究结果表明:分心驾驶对事故伤亡后果具有显著的中介效应,不同危险驾驶行为在分心和事故伤亡间的中介效应不同,没有让行这一危险驾驶行为的平均因果中介效应占总效应比例为 21.2%,中介效应最大.该研究证实危险驾驶行为在分心和事故伤亡间的中介效应存在,并且计算不同危险驾驶行为对应的中介效应.研究结果可为缓解事故风险提出具体的安全对策.
To explore the causal relationship mechanism of distracted driving to accident casualties consequence,the traffic accident data in 2020 from the Crash Report Sampling System(CRSS)was taken as the sample.The causal mediation effect analysis method and the Monte Carlo approximation algorithm were employed for estimation,and the sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the fundamental assumptions of causal mediation effect.The results show that the distracted driving ex-erts significant mediation effect on the accident casualties consequence.Different dangerous driving behavior exhibit varying degrees of mediation effect between distraction and accident casualties.The average causal mediation effect of the failure to yield behavior accounts for 21.2%of the total effect,demonstrating the largest mediation effect.This study confirms the medi-ation effect of dangerous driving behavior between distraction and accident casualties,and calculates the corresponding media-tion effect of different dangerous driving behavior.The research results can put forward specific safety countermeasures to alle-viate the risk of accidents.

traffic safetydistracted drivingdangerous driving behaviorcausal mediation effect analysisaccident casual-ties consequencesensitivity analysis

冯永刚、郑亮

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中南大学 交通运输工程学院,湖南 长沙 410075

交通安全 分心驾驶 危险驾驶行为 因果中介效应分析 事故伤亡后果 敏感性分析

国家自然科学基金项目湖南省自然科学基金项目湖南省教育厅优秀青年基金项目

723712512021JJ3088821B0015

2024

10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.08.028

中国安全生产科学技术
中国安全生产科学研究院

中国安全生产科学技术

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：1.119
ISSN：1673-193X
年,卷(期)：2024.20(8)
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