Passenger flow prediction and safety guarantee strategies of urban rail transit facing large-scale events
In order to solve the problem that the difficulties in accurate demand prediction caused by the temporary,unbal-anced,and unpredictable passenger flow of urban rail transit during large-scale events,as well as the complex coordination problems among organizational elements,firstly,a simulation model combining the passenger path search and selection behav-ior based on hierarchical partitioning of line network was proposed.Secondly,the system of dispatching and command with a five-level warning and three-level safeguard was established.By using the special passenger transport plan,flexible adjustment of transport capacity,decision-making of dispatching and command information platform,linkage of various modes of transpor-tation and traffic control of stations,the safety guarantee method of multi-link combination strategy was established.Finally,a typical case of continuous large-scale event type was selected,and the method was applied to scene adaptation.The results show that this method can support the analysis of passenger demand fluctuation during large-scale event,promote the coordi-nation of operation organization and traffic guidance,and effectively improve the refined operation and emergency response ca-pabilities.The research results can provide reference for rail transit enterprises to deal with the safety guarantee of large-scale events.
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