Dynamic risk assessment model of lifting operation in natural gas station based on AHP and BN
The lifting operation in the natural gas station is a high-risk work activity involving high altitude and heavy lifting.In order to accurately assess the dynamic risk of lifting operation in the natural gas station,the accident frequency was chosen as the main index of risk assessment,and the research was conducted by using the AHP and BN coupled with fuzzy set theo-ry.A multi-level structural model was established through AHP,and the weights of key safety factors were identified and de-termined.The causality network among the variables was constructed through BN,then the accident frequency was calculated and predicted,and the effectiveness of the two methods in dealing with uncertain information,reflecting the complex depend-ency relationship between variables and dynamically updating the safety assessment results was verified.The results show that the personnel factor has the most significant influence,with the importance degree of 41.3％.In addition,the combination of the two can effectively assess the risk of lifting operation.It shows that the accident frequency level of lifting operation in nat-ural gas station increased from levelⅠto levelⅢwhen the operators lack the qualification and experience.The research re-sults can provide reference for the safety management of lifting operation in natural gas field stations.
natural gas stationBayesian network ( BN )risk assessmentlifting operationanalytic hierarchy process ( AHP)
万方数据
维普
