To identify and assess the potential risk of cryogenic wind tunnels,the risk factors of cryogenic wind tunnel were identified based on the Bayesian network method,and the risk factors that could potentially lead to the accidents of cryogenic wind tunnel were obtained.The occurrence fuzzy probabilities of each factor were calculated by using the triangular fuzzy number and game theory,and a Bayesian network model for the risk factors of cryogenic wind tunnel was constructed.The causal reasoning and risk diagnosis were conducted on each risk factor through the forward and reverse reasoning of the Bayes-ian network model,and it was applied to a cryogenic wind tunnel system.The results show that the probabilities of B2 ( frost-bite and asphyxia),B3(mechanical injury),and B5(electric shock) are relatively high,and the prevention efforts for these risk factors should be intensified.Furthermore,in the posterior probability ranking table of cryogenic wind tunnel,C18 ( illegal operation),C9 ( personnel misoperation),C2 ( equipment design defects),and C1 ( equipment part damage and aging) is high-ranking.When the risk accident occurs,it should focus on investigation and take effective risk control measures.The research results can provide some reference for risk assessment,safety decision-making and scheme optimization of cryogenic wind tun-nels.
关键词
低温风洞/贝叶斯网络/风险评估/博弈论/三角模糊数
Key words
cryogenic wind tunnel/Bayesian network/risk assessment/game theory/triangular fuzzy number
万方数据