Construction of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Risk of Deep Vein Thrombosis after Ankle Fracture
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of postoperative deep vein thrombosis(DVT)in patients with an-kle fracture(AF),and to build a nomogram model of postoperative DVT.Methods:A total of 348 AF patients admitted from January 2021 to January 2023 were randomly divided into a modeling group(244 cases)and a validation group(104 cases)in a 7:3 ratio.And they were grouped into DVT group and non DVT group based on whether DVT was formed after surgery.Multivariate Logistic regression model was applied to analyze the risk factors of postoperative DVT in AF patients,R software was applied to draw a nomogram model for predicting postoperative DVT in AF patients and further validate the model.Results:The incidence of postoperative DVT in 348 patients was 20.69％.Univariate analysis showed that concomitant vascular and nerve injuries,age,D-Dimer(D-D),and high-energy injuries were associated with postopera-tive DVT in AF patients(P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.106,95％CI=1.045-1.171),injury mechanism(OR=10.212,95％CI=3.290-31.700),concomitant vascular and nerve injuries(OR=4.805,95％CI=1.649-14.02),and D-Dimer(OR=13.007,95％CI=5.574-30.353)were risk factors for postoperative DVT in AF patients(P＜0.05).The calibration curves of the modeling and validation groups were well fitted,with area under curve(AUC)value of 0.932(95％CI=0.890-0.975)and 0.917(95％CI=0.872-0.962),respectively,the Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)test showed x2=8.575,6.184,P=0.379,0.415,indicated a good consistency between the predicted probability of DVT occurrence and the actual risk of occurrence.Conclusion:Age,concomitant vascular and nerve injuries,D-Dimer,and high-energy injuries are risk factors that affect the occurrence of postoperative DVT in AF patients.This model has good predictive value for postoperative DVT in AF patients.
万方数据
维普
