The predictive function and application value of hip fracture scoring system in the elderly
孙汉宸 1马剑雄 1柏豪豪 1王颖 1崔爽爽 1马信龙 1马宝意
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作者信息
1. 天津大学天津医院骨科研究所，天津市骨科生物力学与医学工程重点实验室，天津 300050
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摘要
目的 建立侧重手术及麻醉相关指标的老年髋部骨折手术并发症发生率和死亡率的风险评估系统，并评价其预测准确度、灵敏度及特异度。 方法 收集2020年1月至2021年2月于天津市天津医院收治的老年髋部骨折手术患者1 086例，男493例、女593例，年龄（76±5）岁（范围60~94岁）。随机选取其中543例用于老年髋部骨折评分系统的建立，男253例、女290例，年龄（75±6）岁（范围60~92岁）。以患者的术前生理学因素评分和手术风险因素评分为自变量，以是否发生并发症及死亡为因变量进行二分类logistic回归分析，建立老年髋部骨折评分系统；以另外543例进行验证，男240例、女303例，年龄（74±7）岁（范围60~94岁），通过受试者工作特征（receiver operating characteristic，ROC）曲线对比生理学和手术严重度评分系统（the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity，POSSUM）、大坪骨科老年患者手术风险评分系统（Daping orthopedics operative risk scoring system for senile patient，DORSSSP）和老年髋部骨折评分系统的曲线下面积、灵敏度、特异度、符合率，评估对并发症发生率及死亡率的预测价值。 结果 老年髋部骨折评分系统预测模型方程为：lnR1/（1-R1）=-7.13+0.112×PS+0.148×OS；lnR2/（1-R2）=-6.14+0.124×PS+0.136×OS[R1为并发症发生率，R2为死亡率，PS（physiology score）为术前生理学因素评分，OS（operation score）为手术风险因素评分]。用于老年髋部骨折评分系统、POSSUM及DORSSSP比较的543例患者中，发生并发症72例、死亡36例。老年髋部骨折评分系统模型预测并发症发生率为12.05%±6.34%（范围6.18%~61.29%），预测发生并发症64例；预测死亡率为6.05%±3.26%（范围2.45%~58.36%），预测死亡29例。POSSUM预测并发症发生率为25.36%±13.95%（范围9.16%~76.34%），预测发生并发症126例；预测死亡率为10.46%±5.31%（范围6.23%~59.34%），预测死亡54例。DORSSSP预测并发症发生率为19.34%±9.67%（范围8.36%~70.85%），预测发生并发症99例；预测死亡率为10.12%±5.16%（范围7.35%~57.54%），预测死亡52例。在预测并发症发生率方面，老年髋部骨折评分系统、POSSUM及DORSSSP的曲线下面积分别为0.95、0.82、0.75，灵敏度分别为0.89、0.83、0.85，特异度分别为0.80、0.86、0.92，符合率分别为0.94、0.93、0.94；在预测死亡率方面，老年髋部骨折评分系统、POSSUM及DORSSSP的曲线下面积分别为0.87、0.67、0.71，灵敏度分别0.85、0.69、0.75，特异度分别为0.73、0.94、0.95，符合率分别为0.94、0.93、0.94。 结论 老年髋部骨折评分系统与POSSUM、DORSSSP相比，预测手术风险整体性能更高，预测老年髋部手术患者并发症发生率及死亡率灵敏度较高，但特异度较低。 Objective To establish a risk assessment system focusing on surgical and anesthesian-related indicators for the incidence of complications and mortality of hip fracture surgery in senile patients, and to evaluate its prediction accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Methods From January 2020 to February 2021, a total of 1 086 elderly patients (493 males and 593 females) aged 76±5 years (ranging from 60 to 94 years) underwent hip fracture surgery in Tianjin Hospital were collected. A total of 543 patients were randomly selected for the establishment of the hip fracture scoring system in senile patients, including 253 males and 290 females, aged 75±6 years (ranging from 60 to 92 years). With the preoperative physiological factor score and surgical risk factor score as independent variables and the occurrence of complications and death as dependent variables, binary logistic regression analysis was performed to establish a surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients. The remaining 543 patients, including 240 males and 303 females, aged 74±7 years (range 60-94 years), their data were used to compare AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and compliance of the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Daping orthopedics operative risk scoring system for senile patient (DORSSSP), and our surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and to compare the predictive value of these systems for complication incidence and mortality. Results The predictive model equation of the elderly hip fracture scoring system is: lnR1/ (1-R1) =-7.13+0.112×PS+0.148×OS lnR2/ (1-R2) =-6.14+0.124×PS+0.136×OS [R1 is the incidence of complications, R2 is the mortality, PS (physiology score) is the score of preoperative physiological factors, and OS (operation score) is the score of surgical risk factors]. Among the 543 patients whose data were used to compared with the hip fracture scoring system, POSSUM and DORSSSP, 72 actually developed complications and 36 died. The complication rate predicted by surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients was 12.05%±6.34% (range 6.18%-61.29%), and 64 cases were predicted to have complications. The predicted mortality was 6.05%±3.26% (range 2.45%-58.36%), and 29 cases were predicted to die. The complication rate predicted by POSSUM was 25.36%±13.95% (range 9.16%-76.34%), and 126 cases were predicted to have complications. The predicted mortality rate was 10.46%±5.31% (range 6.23%-59.34%), and 54 deaths were predicted. The predicted complication rate of DORSSSP was 19.34%±9.67% (range 8.36%-70.85%), and 99 cases were predicted to have complications. The predicted mortality was 10.12%±5.16% (range 7.35%-57.54%), and 52 deaths were predicted. In predicting the incidence of complications, the AUC of surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients, POSSUM and DORSSSP were 0.95, 0.82 and 0.75, the sensitivity was 0.89, 0.83 and 0.85, the specificity was 0.80, 0.86 and 0.92, and the compliance rate was 0.94, 0.93 and 0.94, respectively. In the prediction of mortality, the AUC of surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients, POSSUM and DORSSSP were 0.87, 0.67 and 0.71, the sensitivity was 0.85, 0.69 and 0.75, the specificity was 0.73, 0.94, 0.95, and the compliance rate was 0.94, 0.93 and 0.94, respectively. Conclusion Compared with POSSUM and DORSSSP, hip fracture scoring system in elderly patients has improved its ability to predict surgical risk, and can accurately predict the incidence of complications and mortality in elderly patients undergoing hip surgery.
Abstract
Objective To establish a risk assessment system focusing on surgical and anesthesian-related indicators for the incidence of complications and mortality of hip fracture surgery in senile patients, and to evaluate its prediction accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Methods From January 2020 to February 2021, a total of 1 086 elderly patients (493 males and 593 females) aged 76±5 years (ranging from 60 to 94 years) underwent hip fracture surgery in Tianjin Hospital were collected. A total of 543 patients were randomly selected for the establishment of the hip fracture scoring system in senile patients, including 253 males and 290 females, aged 75±6 years (ranging from 60 to 92 years). With the preoperative physiological factor score and surgical risk factor score as independent variables and the occurrence of complications and death as dependent variables, binary logistic regression analysis was performed to establish a surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients. The remaining 543 patients, including 240 males and 303 females, aged 74±7 years (range 60-94 years), their data were used to compare AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and compliance of the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Daping orthopedics operative risk scoring system for senile patient (DORSSSP), and our surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and to compare the predictive value of these systems for complication incidence and mortality. Results The predictive model equation of the elderly hip fracture scoring system is: lnR1/ (1-R1) =-7.13+0.112×PS+0.148×OS lnR2/ (1-R2) =-6.14+0.124×PS+0.136×OS [R1 is the incidence of complications, R2 is the mortality, PS (physiology score) is the score of preoperative physiological factors, and OS (operation score) is the score of surgical risk factors]. Among the 543 patients whose data were used to compared with the hip fracture scoring system, POSSUM and DORSSSP, 72 actually developed complications and 36 died. The complication rate predicted by surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients was 12.05%±6.34% (range 6.18%-61.29%), and 64 cases were predicted to have complications. The predicted mortality was 6.05%±3.26% (range 2.45%-58.36%), and 29 cases were predicted to die. The complication rate predicted by POSSUM was 25.36%±13.95% (range 9.16%-76.34%), and 126 cases were predicted to have complications. The predicted mortality rate was 10.46%±5.31% (range 6.23%-59.34%), and 54 deaths were predicted. The predicted complication rate of DORSSSP was 19.34%±9.67% (range 8.36%-70.85%), and 99 cases were predicted to have complications. The predicted mortality was 10.12%±5.16% (range 7.35%-57.54%), and 52 deaths were predicted. In predicting the incidence of complications, the AUC of surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients, POSSUM and DORSSSP were 0.95, 0.82 and 0.75, the sensitivity was 0.89, 0.83 and 0.85, the specificity was 0.80, 0.86 and 0.92, and the compliance rate was 0.94, 0.93 and 0.94, respectively. In the prediction of mortality, the AUC of surgical risk scoring system for hip fracture in senile patients, POSSUM and DORSSSP were 0.87, 0.67 and 0.71, the sensitivity was 0.85, 0.69 and 0.75, the specificity was 0.73, 0.94, 0.95, and the compliance rate was 0.94, 0.93 and 0.94, respectively. Conclusion Compared with POSSUM and DORSSSP, hip fracture scoring system in elderly patients has improved its ability to predict surgical risk, and can accurately predict the incidence of complications and mortality in elderly patients undergoing hip surgery.
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