The purpose of this study is to explore the mechanism that cultivated land fragmentation affect part-time behavior of farmers,to provide the references for moderate scale operation of land and ensure farmers'income.The research methods are as follows.Based on the 12-period panel data of the national rural fixed observation point from 2009 to 2020,this study used the random forest model to screen variables,and empirically tested the impact and mechanism of cultivated land fragmentation on farmers'part-time behavior.The results showed that:1)the fragmentation of cultivated land significantly promoted the degree of part-time farmers.After a series of robustness tests,this finding was still valid.2)The results of mechanism test showed that cultivated land fragmentation could affect farmers'part-time by increasing agricultural production costs and reducing planting income.3)Heterogeneity analysis found that the promotion effect of cultivated land fragmentation on farmers'part-time employment was more prominent in second-time farmers,strong'off-farm'atmosphere and villages located in hilly and mountainous areas.In conclusion,we should solve the problems of fragmented cultivated land and delayed differentiation of farmers from the aspects of promoting moderate scale operation of land,promoting cost-saving and efficiency-increasing of planting production,and ensuring differentiated livelihood needs of farmers according to local conditions,to promote the development of agricultural modernization and guarantee national grain safety.
关键词
耕地细碎化/农户兼业化/机器学习/影响机制
Key words
cultivated land fragmentation/part-time behavior of farmers/machine learning/influencing mechanism
维普
万方数据