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国土空间格局优化情景分析:理论与方法

Scenario Analysis of Territorial Space Pattern Optimization:Theory and Method

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研究目的:探析国土空间格局优化情景分析的理论逻辑、现实困境和技术范式,使国土空间格局优化成为促进国土空间高效开发、有力保护和推动区域差异化协同发展的重要支撑,为建立健全中国特色的国土空间治理体系和治理能力现代化提供参考.研究方法:文献调查法,归纳演绎法,理论分析法.研究结果:(1)国土空间格局优化情景分析的理论与方法在要素和空间多尺度融合、演变机理与优化路径耦合、情景评估与对比等方面还需进一步探索.(2)将空间作为要素的载体与流动的外部指引,要素作为空间的核心与演变的内在动因,以情景匹配不同发展路径与优化目标是国土空间格局优化情景分析的理论逻辑.(3)国土空间内在演变机制、系统演化行为以及相应的政策调控路径是国土空间格局优化情景分析的基础,不同空间尺度下各类要素结构调整和配置是国土空间格局优化情景分析的要义与核心内容.研究结论:需加快形成因素综合、过程关联、层次融合、稳定韧性的国土空间格局优化情景分析范式,推动国土空间治理能力提升.
The purpose of this study is to explore the theoretical logic,practical dilemmas and technical paradigms of scenario analysis of territorial space pattern optimization to provide ideas and references for territorial space governance against the background of Chinese modernization.The research methods of literature review,induction and deduction,and theoretical analysis are applied.The research methods of literature review,induction and deduction,and theoretiaal analysis are applied.The results show that:1)the theory and method of scenario analysis of territorial space pattern optimization need to be further explored in terms of integration of elements and spatial scales,the collaboration of evolution mechanisms and optimization model,scenario assessment and comparative analysis.2)Taking space as the carrier and external guidance of elements,using elements as the core and internal motivation of space,and matching different development paths and optimization goals with scenarios is the theoretical logic of scenario analysis of territorial space pattern optimization.3)Exploring the internal mechanism of territorial space evolution and the overall behavior model and its regulatory mechanism are the basis approaches for optimization analysis.The adjustment and allocation of element structure at different spatial scales are the core contents in scenario analysis.In conclusion,it is necessary to accelerate the formation of a scenario analysis paradigm for territorial space pattern optimization with comprehensive factors,muti-process correlation and hierarchical integration to promote the modernization of territorial space governance capabilities and the modernization of harmonious coexistence between human and nature.

territorial space pattern optimizationscenario analysistheoretical logicconcept modelgovernance pathway

龚健、高静、陈光、杨建新

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中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院,湖北 武汉 430074

自然资源部法治研究重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430074

国土空间格局优化 情景分析 理论逻辑 概念模型 治理路径

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金

4207125442101275

2024

中国土地科学
中国土地学会 中国土地勘测规划院

中国土地科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.396
ISSN:1001-8158
年,卷(期):2024.38(2)
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