Multi-scenario Simulation of Construction Land Supply and Demand under the Dual Constraints of Food and Ecology Security:A Case Study of Nanjing City in Jiangsu Province
The purpose of this study is to conduct multi-scenario simulation of construction land supply and demand from the perspective of dual security constraints of"food-ecology"in Nanjing City based on the"anti-planning"theory.The method is food demand prediction and ecological security pattern construction of landscape.The research results show that:1)under the scenarios of"economic priority""ecological conservation"and"coordinative development",the demand for cultivated land in 2030 is 153 854.58 hm2,179 497.01 hm2 and 205 139.44 hm2,and will reach 157 157.71 hm2,183 350.67 hm2 and 209 543.62 hm2 in 2035;the scale of ecological land with low,medium,and high safety levels in Nanjing is 153 741.28 hm2,257 684.61 hm2 and 292 859.35 hm2;under three scenarios,the demand for construction land in 2030 is 200 121.21 hm2,194 060.53 hm2 and 195 683.63 hm2,and will reach 206 523.92 hm2,196 523.96 hm2 and 197 983.55 hm2 in 2035.2)Compared to the other two scenarios,the supply-demand gap of construction land is smaller under the coordinative development scenario,i.e.,785.40 hm2 and-5 918.70 hm2.This scenario can meet the basic requirements of food and ecological security while meeting economic development needs.In conclusion,taking coordinative development as the goal is conducive to handling the contradictions between economic development,food security and ecological protection.
food securityecology securityconstruction landscenario simulationNanjing City
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