Diagnosis of Cultivated Land Use System Vulnerability and Identification of Influencing Factors:A Case Study of Northern Jiangsu
The purposes of this paper are to measure the vulnerability of cultivated land use system in northern Jiangsu based on the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram(VSD)framework,to reveal its spatial-temporal evolution patterns and influencing factors,and to put forward a targeted zoning strategy for"vulnerability reduction".The research methods include CRITIC,composite index,spatial auto-correlation analysis and barrier degree model.The research results show that:1)from 2000 to 2020,the exposure and sensitivity of the cultivated land use system in northern Jiangsu exhibited an increasing trend over time,while adaptability initially decreased and then increased.Spatially,the exposure changed from"generally low,sporadically high"to"high in the central region and low in the east and west",while sensitivity maintained a pattern of"high in the west and low in the east".Adaptability shifted from"high in the north and low in the south"to"high along the northwest-southeast axis and low on both sides of the axis".2)The vulnerability presented an initial increase followed by a decrease,transitioning spatially from"generally low,sporadically high"to"high in the west and low in the east".Additionally,during the study period,there was the evidence of regional vulnerability spilling over to the surrounding counties.3)The primary obstacles to exposure shifted from urbanization rate to the intensity of fertilizer use and population density.The replanting index and land fragmentation remained as obstacles to sensitivity.The primary obstacles to adaptability shifted from grain yield per unit and transportation accessibility to transportation accessibility,total agricultural output value and level of agricultural mechanization.The constraints on adaptability constitute the main constraint pattern for the formation of vulnerability.In conclusion,although the vulnerability is the result of the combined effects of exposure,sensitivity and adaptability,adaptability plays the decisive role.The"vulnerability reduction"needs to follow three principles,i.e.,strengthening the construction of cultivated land resources base to coordinate the reduction of exposure and sensitivity,increasing the restoration of cultivated land system and promoting the construction of basic elements,and filling the gaps in the cultivated land structure to consolidate the system's defense mechanisms.
cultivated land usevulnerabilityVSD frameworknorthern Jiangsu
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