长江经济带耕地空间转型的时空格局及驱动机理研究
Exploring the Spatial Patterns and Driving Mechanisms of Farmland Spatial Transition in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
柯善淦 1崔海莹 1葛堃 2王爱丽 1杜星 1卢新海3
作者信息
- 1. 华中师范大学公共管理学院,湖北 武汉 430079
- 2. 江西师范大学城市建设学院,江西 南昌 330022
- 3. 华中师范大学公共管理学院,湖北 武汉 430079;华中科技大学公共管理学院,湖北 武汉 430074
- 折叠
摘要
研究目的:厘清耕地空间转型的内涵意蕴,识别长江经济带耕地空间转型的时空格局,并揭示其驱动机理,以期为耕地合理利用提供参考.研究方法:熵值法、空间自相关分析、时空地理加权回归模型、中介效应模型.研究结果:(1)长江经济带耕地空间转型指数具有"东西强,中部弱"的空间特征,并在时间上呈增强趋势.(2)人口和经济是影响耕地空间转型的决定性因子.(3)驱动因子对耕地空间转型的影响大多以直接效应为主,而农产品单产和人口城市化率以间接影响为主.(4)耕地空间转型过程中,中介效应以零效应或负效应为主,主要受制于生产技术进步、生产模式升级、基础设施完善等中介机制发展不足;产业结构发展不完善成为制约耕地空间转型的关键瓶颈.研究结论:未来应着重协同提升人口素质、加速农业经济发展和深化产业结构升级,以有效推动长江经济带耕地空间转型,支撑农业现代化进程.
Abstract
The purposes of this study are to clarify the connotations of farmland spatial transition,to identify its spatial patterns in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,to reveal the driving mechanisms,and to provide the references for the rational farmland use.The research methods include entropy,spatial autocorrelation analysis,spatiotemporal geographic weighted regression model and mediating effect model.The research results show that:1)the overall level of farmland spatial transition in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exhibits a spatial pattern characterized as"strong in the east and west,weak in the center."Over time,the condition shows an improving trend.2)Population and economic factors are the decisive factors influencing farmland spatial transition.3)The majority of the effects of the driving factors on the farmland spatial transition are direct,whereas the effects of agricultural yields and population urbanization rates are indirect.4)During the process of farmland spatial transition,the mediating effects predominantly manifest as null or negative,primarily constrained by inadequate advancements in production technology,upgrading of production models,and improvements in infrastructure.The underdeveloped industrial structure emerges as a critical bottleneck hindering farmland spatial transition.In conclusion,the future efforts should concentrate on the synergistic enhancement of population quality,acceleration of agricultural economic development,and deepening of industrial structural upgrades.These measures are crucial for effectively propelling farmland spatial transition within the Yangtze River Economic Belt,thereby underpinning the advancement towards agricultural modernization.
关键词
耕地空间转型/时空格局/驱动机理/长江经济带Key words
farmland spatial transition/spatial pattern/driving mechanism/Yangtze River Economic Belt引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BGL191)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据